Livingston Montana Fly Fishing Blog

Snowpack Update and Summer Streamflow and Fishing Forecast for April 21, 2022

Posted on April 22nd, 2022 in Season Forecasts, Weather & Water Conditions

Introduction, Current Conditions, and Long-Range Outlooks

Here in Yellowstone Country, winter snowpack and how this snowpack melts from late April through June play the most important roles in summer water supply for both fish and agriculture from early June through mid-September. June through mid-September temperatures and rainfall play a secondary role. Only after mid-September does day-to-day weather play the largest role in overall water levels and water quality. Winter weather is thus very helpful in planning summer fishing trips to the region.

On the heels of low snowpack in 2020-2021 followed by a record warm, dry summer that came early, we are currently in severe to extreme drought throughout the YCFF operations area. Most areas are in extreme drought, the second-worst category overall. Montana is in worse shape as far as drought than any other regions in the West except for Oregon east of the Cascade Range and southern Nevada. Unfortunately, we had a very dry winter. April has thus far been very cold and at least somewhat wet, though the heaviest snowfall has occurred east of our core operations area. Still, any help is better than none. Snowpack did increase since our last update at the end of March, the first bright spot we’ve had since early January.

As of right now, areas within our operations area are at 77% to 87% of normal. This is a huge increase from our last update, when things were at 68% to 80% of normal. The most important basins–the Yellowstone River Basin in WY and Yellowstone Park and the Yellowstone River Basin in Montana–are at 87% and 84%, respectively. While on paper these numbers don’t look too bad, they’re not great when the drought is taken into consideration. A lot of our snow will disappear straight into the ground during the spring melt, rather than actually contributing to streamflow.

We have enjoyed a cold and wet April, and current NOAA outlooks predict this will continue into early May. This is great news. At the very least, the spring melt this year should be normal, and if cold weather can continue until about May 10, runoff will be late. The longer the snow stays in the mountains, the longer water stays in the rivers in mid-late summer.

Long-range outlooks for May taken as a whole and the summer period are not so friendly. Warmer-than-normal and drier-than-normal conditions are predicted. We really don’t want this prediction to come true.

Summary of Anticipated Water & Fishing Conditions

In a general sense, here’s what we expect for June through mid-September streamflow and fishing conditions. This is based on current conditions and the longer-range outlooks. Think of the following as something like a weather forecast from a week out: it’s too early for specifics, but the general outline is probably accurate. We anticipate low and warm to extremely low and warm stream conditions for the June-September core season.

Here’s what this means for anticipated water and fishing conditions.

• The fishing and guiding seasons began in mid-March and fishing has been good. The fishing is likely to remain consistent until at least May 5, and possibly mid-May. After the heavy melt hits and then recedes, the best fishing is likely to occur between mid-June and mid-July.
• Below-normal snowpack and resulting summer streamflows are now certain. How low we go depends on how much moisture we get through mid-May and how the snow melts from late April onward. Record-low water in late summer is possible, but less likely than it was a few weeks ago.
• We anticipate a light snowmelt and an early end to the snowmelt cycle. The end point will depend on when the snow starts melting in earnest.
• Mid-June through mid-July will offer much better conditions than August and early September on all waters, including many small streams and areas within Yellowstone Park that are typically too high and muddy to fish before early July. Provided current outlooks through the first week of May are accurate, July fishing should be generally “safe.”
• The fish are likely to be spooky and difficult from sometime in the latter half of July through mid-September more often than not, with steeper, faster, deeper water holding on longer.
• 2:00PM fishing closures will be commonacross our operations area between sometime in the last ten days of July and late August. Closures outside of these timeframes are possible if we have an early extreme warmup in May-June as we did in 2021.
• Complete fishing closures are possible on many waters in August if we have a repeat of last summer’s record heat and drought. This could include total fishing closures in Yellowstone Park. These are much less likely in Montana.
• Very limited legal or at least ethical fishing opportunities are possible in August if we have a hot/dry summer.
• The fishing opportunities will increase substantially with the first spell of cooler weather, usually in the last week or so of August, but the fishing will remain very difficult most days until the weather gets cold and gray sometime in the latter half of September.
• Due to tinderbox conditions throughout most of the West, fires and smoke from both local and distant fires are likely to be very bad this year beginning in mid-July.
• Due to anticipated very poor conditions in August, we now discourage fishing-specific travel to the area between August 1 and at least August 20. We are still accepting bookings for this period, but only if clients are willing to book “guide’s choice” trips in terms of duration (full-day vs half-day, the latter being much more likely if we’re targeting trout), trip type (walk or float), and target species. In regards to target species, high stress on trout and widespread closures on trout waters may mean that carp will be our preferred target species in August, particularly on full-day trips.
• Due to the winding-down of COVID (we hope) prompting high tourism, as well as the rapidly increasing population in the region, fishing pressure will be intense from the end of runoff through early October, assuming fires and stream closures allow for it. The quality of the fishing will not play any role in how many people are on the water. We are already seeing much more fishing pressure than used to be typical, including record-high bookings for March and April.

Detailed Fishing Conditions by Water

The following information is coming into sharper focus now, since most of the snow that will accumulate has accumulated. The real X factors remaining are when the spring melt starts in earnest (early–>late April, normal–>first ten days of May, late–>anytime thereafter), how much June rain we receive, and how soon the first summer heat wave hits. In 2021 we were in much better shape for snowpack than we are this year prior to the end of April, but we had an early melt, an exceptionally dry June, and broiling-hot weather from mid-June through mid-July. These three factors crushed us last year.

If we have a normal or late start to the melt, a normal to wet June, and a normal to cool June and early July, we will be in good shape to avoid widespread closures. Right now, we’re heading the direction we want to head in. Hopefully this will continue. On the other hand, if we have a similar start to summer as we did last year, complete fishing closures in the vast majority of our operations area are very likely in late summer.

Montana Fisheries

• Yellowstone River: Runoff will end between June 10 and June 20, with June 15 most likely. The fishing will be best for the month following. One of my long-time clients booked for June 20-21 and I suspect he hit his dates perfectly. Hot, bright days from about July 20-25 through early September will be very difficult, particularly in shallow, gentle sections of river. 2:00PM fishing closures are possible on the entire Yellowstone River from YNP to Laurel from sometime in late July or early August until sometime in late August. They are probable east of Livingston. Complete fishing closures are possible in the first three weeks of August.
• Madison River: The Lower Madison will not experience any appreciable runoff and will be best prior to June 10. After June 20 it will generally run too warm after noon depending on day-to-day weather. The Upper Madison (really outside my ops area) will likewise probably not experience much of a runoff. It will be best from mid-June through late July. 2:00 closures are certain on the Lower Madison beginning no later than early July and possible but much less likely on the upper Madison beginning in late July.
• Boulder River: Runoff will end between June 10 and June 20, with June 10-15 most likely. The river will get too low to float by July 10-15, and perhaps sooner. High water temps and low flows will almost certainly be a problem even for wade-fishing in August due to this small river’s intense irrigation drawdowns. The Boulder seldom sees any fishing restrictions due to water levels or temperature, but in all honesty I expect areas downstream of Natural Bridge should be closed 24 hours a day in August this year, due as much to irrigation drawdowns as water temps.
• Stillwater River: Runoff will end between June 15 and June 25, with June 20 most likely. Upper sections will be too low to float around July 10-15. Lower portions downstream of the Rosebud confluence will be high enough to float through sometime in August, probably the 20th. The best fishing will occur in July. 2:00 closures are possible in late July and August.
• Missouri River: No appreciable runoff will occur. The carp/walleye/pike water upstream from Canyon Ferry Reservoir will as always fish best from late July through early September. Head-hunting carp here will be our preferred option for early August trips if we have a hot/dry summer. The trout water downstream of Canyon Ferry (including “Land of Giants”) will fish best from now through June. Both the trout water and the “other” water are less likely to have closures than any other water we fish.
• Private Lakes: Day-to-day weather is more important on the lakes than snowmelt. These lakes should fish well from early April through at least mid-June, with hot/bright weather thereafter the determining factor on when things get slow.
• Paradise Valley Spring Creeks: Fishing is always best on the creeks from early March through April, then again from about June 20 through July 20. Unfortunately, radically-increasing pressure on the creeks now means that many prime dates in June-July 2023 are now booked solid. We’re basically done guiding on these creeks except in March-April because of this.
• Other Waters: The Gallatin River will likely drop out of runoff in mid-June and possibly get too warm by late July. The Jefferson River will drop from runoff by June 10-15 and probably be too warm the instant it does. Immense fish kills occurred on this river in 2021 and this year will be no better. Many portions may honestly never recover, given the likely future flows and water temps current climate models predict. Montana small streams will generally fish best in July and perhaps early August if they don’t drop TOO fast. Public lakes in Montana will be best in May and early June except for carp, which rise to hoppers on some lakes in late July and August.

Yellowstone Park Fisheries

• Yellowstone River: The Lake-Falls stretch always opens July 15. It will be best for the week thereafter. The Grand Canyon from the Falls to the Lamar confluence will not experience an unfishably-high runoff. It should fish well with nymphs and streamers as soon as it opens on the Saturday of Memorial Day Weekend, though it won’t necessarily be “pretty.” 2:00 closures are likely in August, though only because YNP tends to use a hammer as its only tool in fisheries management–in reality, this section of the Yellowstone stays under 70 degrees and is deep enough to offer good cover even in awful drought years. The Grand Canyon will probably offer the best fishing of any stretch of the Yellowstone this year averaged out over the whole season, including sections both inside and outside the park. The Black Canyon section downstream of the Lamar confluence tracks similarly to the Yellowstone River outside the park.
• Gardner River: The Gardner will be fishable on a day-to-day basis from the park opener through mid-June, then be good through early July throughout and after early July only upstream from Boiling River. Downstream of Boiling River will be too warm until mid-September. Note that the Gardner saw overwhelming pressure in 2021 and generally fished poorly because of it except in June and October.
• Lamar River & Tributaries: Runoff will end around June 20 on Slough Creek and between June 20 and July 1 elsewhere. The best fishing will be for the month thereafter. Late August and early September will see low water and spooky fish, particularly on Slough Creek. Roadside areas saw overwhelming pressure in 2021 and 2022 might well be worse.
• Firehole River: The Firehole will not experience an appreciable runoff and will fish best between the park opener and June 10. The first hot/dry spell between June 5 and June 20 will shut down fishing until after Labor Day. Overall, this will be a very grim season for the Firehole. We did not guide on the Firehole in 2021 and almost certainly will not in 2022, either. If current climate models continue, the Firehole will cease to be a relevant fishery downstream of Old Faithful by 2030 due to repeated fish kills associated with high water temperatures.
• Gibbon River: The Gibbon upstream of Norris Geyser Basin will be fishable sometime between the park opener and June 5 and will be best before mid-July. Areas downstream of Norris Geyser Basin are unlikely to experience an appreciable runoff and will be best between the season opener and June 10. After June 10, the first hot spell will shut the fishing off until September 1. This is going to be a bad year for the lower Gibbon.
• Upper Madison River: Generally similar to the Firehole but will hang on for a few days after the first hot spell. This is going to be a bad year for the Park section of the Madison.
• Lakes in YNP: Ice-out will depend on day-to-day weather but should occur before or right around Opening Day. All should be accessible from this point onward due to limited snow on the trails. All will fish best from ice-out (or Opening Day, whichever comes second) through June, then trail off through early July.
• Creeks in YNP: Meadow-type streams will become fishable between June 10 and June 20, with those draining lakes becoming fishable towards the earlier end and those draining mountains falling into shape later. All will be best for the first month after they come in. Rough, mountain creeks will come into shape between June 20 and July 1 and be best for a month starting about a week after they fall into shape.

Late March Update on Snowpack and Likely Summer Water and Fishing Conditions

Posted on March 31st, 2022 in Season Forecasts, Weather & Water Conditions

Introduction, Current Conditions, and Long-Range Outlooks

Here in Yellowstone Country, winter snowpack and how this snowpack melts from late April through June play the most important roles in summer water supply for both fish and agriculture from early June through mid-September. June through mid-September temperatures and rainfall play a secondary role. Only after mid-September does day-to-day weather play the largest role in overall water levels and water quality. Winter weather is thus very helpful in planning summer fishing trips to the region.

On the heels of low snowpack in 2020-2021 followed by a record warm, dry summer that came early, we are currently in severe to extreme drought throughout the YCFF operations area. Most areas are in extreme drought, the second-worst category overall. Montana is in worse shape as far as drought than any other regions in the West except for Oregon east of the Cascade Range and southern Nevada. Unfortunately, we have had a very dry winter and had record warmth (now thankfully over) in the latter half of March. This record warmth ripped the guts out of what meager snowpack we do have and primed this snow to melt.

As of right now, areas within our operations area are at 68% to 80% of normal, with the most important basins–the Yellowstone River Basin in WY and Yellowstone Park and the Yellowstone River Basin in Montana–at 80% and 75%, respectively. Combine the drought and the low snowpack and you get a recipe for exceptionally low water through much of the peak mid/late summer season. I would not be surprised if most of the snowpack disappears straight into the ground as it did in California last year.

Long-range outlooks offer some hope for cooler weather through April, but none for much late-season snowfall.

Summary of Anticipated Water & Fishing Conditions

In a general sense, here’s what we expect for June through mid-September streamflow and fishing conditions. This is based on current conditions and the longer-range outlooks. Think of the following as something like a weather forecast from a week out: it’s too early for specifics, but the general outline is probably accurate. Absent an exceptionally cold and wet second quarter to the year, we now anticipate extreme low water conditions starting in mid-July and lasting until the fall rains come sometime in mid-September.

• The fishing and guiding seasons began a couple weeks ago and fishing has been good. The period from now through about April 20 as well as June and the first two or three weeks of July are almost certain to offer the most consistent fishing of the year.
• Below-normal snowpack and resulting summer streamflows are now certain. How low we go depends on how much moisture we get through mid-May and how the snow melts from late April onward. Record-low water in late summer is very possible.
• We anticipate a light snowmelt and an early end to the snowmelt cycle. The end point will depend on when the snow starts melting in earnest.
• Mid-June through mid-July will offer much better conditions than August and early September on all waters, including many small streams and areas within Yellowstone Park that are typically too high and muddy to fish before early July. An early start to the spring melt will put the latter half of July in jeopardy as well.
• The fish are likely to be spooky and difficult from mid-July through mid-September more often than not, with steeper, faster, deeper water holding on longer.
• 2:00PM fishing closures will be common to almost universal across our operations area between sometime in the last ten days of July and late August. Closures outside of these timeframes are possible if we have an early extreme warmup as we did in 2021.
• Complete fishing closures are possible on many waters in August if we have a repeat of last summer’s record heat and drought. This could include total fishing closures in Yellowstone Park. These are much less likely in Montana.
• Very limited legal or at least ethical fishing opportunities are possible in August if we have a hot/dry summer.
• The fishing opportunities will increase substantially with the first spell of cooler weather, usually in the last week or so of August, but the fishing will remain very difficult most days until the weather gets cold and gray sometime in the latter half of September.
• Due to tinderbox conditions throughout most of the West, fires and smoke from both local and distant fires are likely to be very bad this year beginning in mid-July.
• Due to anticipated very poor conditions in August, we now discourage fishing-specific travel to the area between August 1 and at least August 20. We are still accepting bookings for this period, but only if clients are willing to book “guide’s choice” trips in terms of duration (full-day vs half-day, the latter being much more likely if we’re targeting trout), trip type (walk or float), and target species. In regards to target species, high stress on trout and widespread closures on trout waters may mean that carp will be our preferred target species in August, particularly on full-day trips.
• Due to the winding-down of COVID (we hope) prompting high tourism, as well as the rapidly increasing population in the region, fishing pressure will be intense from the end of runoff through early October, assuming fires and stream closures allow for it. The quality of the fishing will not play any role in how many people are on the water. We are already seeing much more fishing pressure than used to be typical, including record-high bookings for March and April.

Detailed Fishing Conditions by Water

The following information is coming into sharper focus now, since most of the snow that will accumulate has accumulated. The real X factors remaining are when the spring melt starts in earnest (early–>late April, normal–>first ten days of May, late–>anytime thereafter), how much June rain we receive, and how soon the first summer heat wave hits. In 2021 we were in much better shape for snowpack than we are this year prior to the end of April, but we had an early melt, an exceptionally dry June, and broiling-hot weather from mid-June through mid-July. These three factors crushed us last year.

If we have a normal or late start to the melt, a normal to wet June, and a normal to cool June and early July, we will be in good shape to avoid widespread closures. If we have a similar start to summer as we did last year, complete fishing closures in the vast majority of our operations area are very likely in late summer.

Montana Fisheries

• Yellowstone River: While it’s conceivably we won’t have an unfishable runoff on the Yellowstone, only a few muddy days here and there, it’s more likely runoff will end between June 5 and June 20, with June 10-15 most likely. The fishing will be best for the month following. One of my long-time clients booked for June 20-21 and I suspect he hit his dates perfectly. Hot, bright days from about July 20-25 through early September will be very difficult, particularly in shallow, gentle sections of river. 2:00PM fishing closures are very likely on the entire Yellowstone River from YNP to Laurel from sometime in late July or early August until sometime in late August. Complete fishing closures are possible in the first three weeks of August.
• Madison River: The Lower Madison will not experience any appreciable runoff and will be best prior to June 10. After June 15 it will generally run too warm after noon depending on day-to-day weather. The Upper Madison (really outside my ops area) will likewise probably not experience much of a runoff. It will be best from mid-June through mid-July. 2:00 closures are certain on the Lower Madison beginning no later than early July and possible on the upper Madison beginning in late July.
• Boulder River: Runoff will end between June 5 and June 20, with June 10-15 most likely. The river will get too low to float by July 10, and perhaps sooner. High water temps and low flows will almost certainly be a problem even for wade-fishing in August due to this small river’s intense irrigation drawdowns. The Boulder seldom sees any fishing restrictions due to water levels or temperature, but in all honesty I expect areas downstream of Natural Bridge should be closed 24 hours a day in August this year, due as much to irrigation drawdowns as water temps.
• Stillwater River: Runoff will end between June 10 and June 20, with June 15 most likely. Upper sections will be too low to float around July 10. Lower portions downstream of the Rosebud confluence will be high enough to float through sometime in August, probably the 15th-25th. The best fishing will occur in July. 2:00 closures are possible in late July and August.
• Missouri River: No appreciable runoff will occur. The carp/walleye/pike water upstream from Canyon Ferry Reservoir will as always fish best from late July through early September. Head-hunting carp here will be our preferred option for early August trips if we have a hot/dry summer. The trout water downstream of Canyon Ferry (including “Land of Giants”) will fish best from now through June. Both the trout water and the “other” water are less likely to have closures than any other water we fish.
• Private Lakes: Day-to-day weather is more important on the lakes than snowmelt. These lakes should fish well from early April through at least mid-June, with hot/bright weather thereafter the determining factor on when things get slow.
• Paradise Valley Spring Creeks: Fishing is always best on the creeks from early March through April, then again from about June 20 through July 20. Unfortunately, radically-increasing pressure on the creeks now means that many prime dates in June-July 2023 are now booked solid. We’re basically done guiding on these creeks except in March-April because of this.
• Other Waters: The Gallatin River will likely drop out of runoff in mid-June and possibly get too warm by late July. The Jefferson River will drop from runoff by June 10-15 and probably be too warm the instant it does. Immense fish kills occurred on this river in 2021 and this year will be no better. Many portions may honestly never recover, given the likely future flows and water temps current climate models predict. Montana small streams will generally fish best in July and perhaps early August if they don’t drop TOO fast. Public lakes in Montana will be best in May and early June except for carp, which rise to hoppers on some lakes in late July and August.

Yellowstone Park Fisheries

• Yellowstone River: The Lake-Falls stretch always opens July 15. It will be best for the week thereafter. The Grand Canyon from the Falls to the Lamar confluence will not experience an unfishably-high runoff. It should fish well with nymphs and streamers as soon as it opens on the Saturday of Memorial Day Weekend, though it won’t necessarily be “pretty.” 2:00 closures are likely in August, though only because YNP tends to use a hammer as its only tool in fisheries management–in reality, this section of the Yellowstone stays under 70 degrees and is deep enough to offer good cover even in awful drought years. The Grand Canyon will probably offer the best fishing of any stretch of the Yellowstone this year averaged out over the whole season, including sections both inside and outside the park. The Black Canyon section downstream of the Lamar confluence tracks similarly to the Yellowstone River outside the park.
• Gardner River: The Gardner will be fishable on a day-to-day basis from the park opener through mid-June, then be good through early July throughout and after early July only upstream from Boiling River. Downstream of Boiling River will be too warm until mid-September. Note that the Gardner saw overwhelming pressure in 2021 and generally fished poorly because of it except in June and October.
• Lamar River & Tributaries: Runoff will end between June 15 and June 25 on Slough Creek and between June 15 and July 1 elsewhere. The best fishing will be for the month thereafter. Late August and early September will see low water and spooky fish, particularly on Slough Creek. Roadside areas saw overwhelming pressure in 2021 and 2022 might well be worse.
• Firehole River: The Firehole will not experience an appreciable runoff and will fish best between the park opener and June 10. The first hot/dry spell between June 5 and June 20 will shut down fishing until after Labor Day. Overall, this will be a very grim season for the Firehole. We did not guide on the Firehole in 2021 and almost certainly will not in 2022, either. If current climate models continue, the Firehole will cease to be a relevant fishery downstream of Old Faithful by 2030 due to repeated fish kills associated with high water temperatures.
• Gibbon River: The Gibbon upstream of Norris Geyser Basin will be fishable sometime between the park opener and June 5 and will be best before mid-July. Areas downstream of Norris Geyser Basin are unlikely to experience an appreciable runoff and will be best between the season opener and June 10. After June 10, the first hot spell will shut the fishing off until September 1. This is going to be a bad year for the lower Gibbon.
• Upper Madison River: Generally similar to the Firehole but will hang on for a few days after the first hot spell. This is going to be a bad year for the Park section of the Madison.
• Lakes in YNP: Ice-out will depend on day-to-day weather but should occur before or right around Opening Day. All should be accessible from this point onward due to limited snow on the trails. All will fish best from ice-out (or Opening Day, whichever comes second) through June, then trail off through early July.
• Creeks in YNP: Meadow-type streams will become fishable between June 5 and June 20, with those draining lakes becoming fishable towards the earlier end and those draining mountains falling into shape later. All will be best for the first month after they come in. Rough, mountain creeks will come into shape between June 15 and July 1 and be best for a month starting about a week after they fall into shape.

Brief Update on Late-Summer Conditions and Guided Trip Availability

Posted on March 30th, 2022 in Season Forecasts, Weather & Water Conditions

Our next full update on snowpack and current summer water conditions should drop on Friday. That said, recent continued degradation to our already scant snowpack means that we are now certain to experience extreme drought conditions in late summer. Record low flows and the worst late-summer fishing conditions since 1988 are now likely.

As such, we now actively DISCOURAGE potential clients from planning fishing trips to Montana from August 1 through August 20. We are likely to face broad and extreme fishing restrictions to protect trout at this time, possibly including full fishing closures in Yellowstone Park and on most or all large rivers outside it. 2:00 closures on all major trout waters are now almost certain.

For clients who are planning general family vacations and still want to get a day of guided fishing in, we will accept August bookings only on a “guide’s choice” basis as far as trip type, duration, and target species. We heartily encourage arranging “peak season” travel to fish in June and the first three weeks of July or after September 15.

Mid-March Snowpack Update and Season Fishing Forecast

Posted on March 19th, 2022 in Area Fishing News, Season Forecasts, Weather & Water Conditions

Introduction, Current Conditions, and Long-Range Outlooks

Here in Yellowstone Country, winter snowpack and how this snowpack melts from late April through June play the most important roles in summer water supply for both fish and agriculture from early June through mid-September. June through mid-September temperatures and rainfall play a secondary role. Only after mid-September does day-to-day weather play the largest role in overall water levels and water quality. Winter weather is thus very helpful in planning summer fishing trips to the region.

On the heels of low snowpack in 2020-2021 followed by a record warm, dry summer that came early, we are currently in severe to extreme drought throughout the YCFF operations area. Montana is in worse shape as far as drought than any other regions in the West except for Oregon east of the Cascade Range and the state of Nevada. Unfortunately, current snowpack is very low, so these conditions are not likely to improve much. Current snowpack ranges from 74% to 86% of normal for the date in our ops area, with the two most important basins (the Yellowstone River basins in Wyoming/YNP and Montana) at 83% and 81% of normal, respectively.

The culprit for the above low snowpack is simple: we had very little fall and early winter snow, lots of snow from about December 10 through New Year, almost none in January and most of February, and a little since. January and February snowfall were record-low in many areas throughout the region. The following graphic is from the Two Ocean Plateau Snotel, a high-elevation snow data sensor at 9240 feet near Yellowstone Park’s southern boundary, in the Wyoming portion of the Upper Yellowstone basin. Notice the flatline. That’s this year’s water. The smooth green line is mean snowpack for the date. The jerky green line is median snowpack for the date.

Unfortunately, the 6–10 and 8–14 day outlooks, the monthly outlook for March, and the 3-month outlook for April through June do not look promising for much improvement in the above numbers. The 8–14 day and three-month outlooks (the latter covers the entire spring runoff season) are provided below.

Summary of Anticipated Water & Fishing Conditions

In a general sense, here’s what we expect for June through mid-September streamflow and fishing conditions. This is based on current conditions and the longer-range outlooks. Think of the following as something like a weather forecast from a week out: it’s too early for specifics, but the general outline is probably accurate. Spring fishing conditions depend on day-to-day weather; we hope for a late and slow start to the spring snowmelt.

• The fishing and guiding seasons have already begun. Now (mid-March) through mid-April will probably offer the most consistent float-fishing of the entire season, with the exception of about a month in June-July.
• Below-normal snowpack and resulting summer streamflows are now certain. How low we go depends on how much moisture we get through mid-May and how the snow melts from late April onward. Record-low water in late summer is very possible.
• We anticipate a light snowmelt and an early end to the snowmelt cycle. The end point will depend on when the snow starts melting in earnest.
• Late June and July fishing conditions will be better than August and early September conditions.
• The fish are likely to be spooky and difficult for much of the season.
• 2:00PM fishing closures will be common to universal across our operations area between July 25 and August 25. Closures outside of these timeframes are possible if we have an early extreme warmup as we did in 2021.
• Complete fishing closures are possible on many waters in August if we have a repeat of last summer’s record heat and drought. This could include total fishing closures in Yellowstone Park. These are much less likely in Montana.
• Fires and smoke from both local and distant fires are likely to be very bad this year beginning in mid-July.
• Due to the winding-down of COVID (we hope) prompting high tourism, as well as the rapidly increasing population in the region, fishing pressure will be intense from the end of runoff through early October, assuming fires and stream closures allow for it. The quality of the fishing will not play any role in how many people are on the water. We are already seeing much more fishing pressure than is typical for season, including record-high bookings for March.

Detailed Fishing Conditions by Water

The following information is still quite general, as we still don’t know exactly how much snow we will get or when and how this snow will melt. In general, more snow and a later melt will push things towards the latter end of the following date ranges, increase overall summer streamflows, improve the fishing in late July and August, and reduce fishing quality in June, while little moisture for the remainder of winter and early spring and an early start to the melt will have opposite effects.

Fishing beginning in early-mid September depends more on day-to-day weather than snowmelt. In general, the fishing AFTER September 15 will probably be better than the fishing BEFORE unless we see unusual weather. We DID see unusual weather in 2021; early September was cool and wet while late September was warm and bright, so fishing was much better in early September last year. This was very odd.

Montana Fisheries

• Yellowstone River: Runoff will end between June 10 and June 20. The fishing will be best for the month following. Hot, bright days in August and early September will be very difficult, particularly in shallow, gentle sections of river. 2:00PM fishing closures are very likely on the entire Yellowstone River from YNP to Laurel from sometime in late July until sometime in late August unless we are blessed with a late runoff and a cool, wet June.
• Madison River: The Lower Madison will not experience any appreciable runoff and will be best prior to June 10. After June 15 it may be too warm after noon depending on day-to-day weather. The Upper Madison (really outside my ops area) will likewise probably not experience much of a runoff. It will be best from mid-June through mid-July.
• Boulder River: Runoff will end between June 10 and June 20, with June 15 most likely. The river is likely to get too low to float around July 10, and perhaps sooner. High water temps and low flows will almost certainly be a problem even for wade-fishing in August due to this small river’s intense irrigation drawdowns.
• Stillwater River: Runoff will end between June 10 and June 25, with June 15-20 most likely. Upper sections will be too low to float around July 10-15. Lower portions downstream of the Rosebud confluence will be high enough to float through late August. The best fishing will occur in July.
• Missouri River: No appreciable runoff will occur. It’s actually pretty unlikely flows from Holter Dam will change much at all from the current 3000-odd CFS levels this spring. The carp/walleye/pike water upstream from Canyon Ferry Reservoir will as always fish best from late July through early September. The trout water downstream of Canyon Ferry (including “Land of Giants”) will fish best from now through June.
• Private Lakes: Day-to-day weather is more imporant on the lakes than snowmelt. These lakes should fish well from early April through at least mid-June, with hot/bright weather thereafter the determining factor on when things get slow.
• Paradise Valley Spring Creeks: Fishing is always best on the creeks from early March through April, then again from about June 20 through July 20. Unfortunately, radically-increasing pressure on the creeks now means that many prime dates in June-July 2023 are now booked solid. We’re basically done guiding on these creeks except in March-April because of this.
• Other Waters: The Gallatin River will likely drop out of runoff in mid-June and possibly get too warm by late July. The Jefferson River will drop from runoff by mid-June and probably be too warm the instant it does. Immense fish kills occurred on this river in 2021 and this year will be no better. Many portions may honestly never recover, given the likely future flows and water temps current climate models predict. Montana small streams will generally fish best in July but will also be okay in August provided they don’t get TOO skinny. Public lakes in Montana will be best in May and June.

Yellowstone Park Fisheries

• Yellowstone River: The Lake-Falls stretch always opens July 15. It will be best for the two weeks thereafter. The Grand Canyon from the Falls to the Lamar confluence is unlikely to experience an unfishably-high runoff. It should fish well with nymphs and streamers as soon as it opens on the Saturday of Memorial Day Weekend, though it won’t necessarily be “pretty.” 2:00 closures are likely in August, though only because YNP tends to use a hammer as its only tool in fisheries management–in reality, this section of the Yellowstone stays under 70 degrees and is deep enough to offer good cover even in awful drought years. The Black Canyon section downstream of the Lamar confluence tracks similarly to the Yellowstone River outside the park.
• Gardner River: The Gardner will be fishable on a day-to-day basis from the park opener through mid-June, then be good through early July throughout and after early July only upstream from Boiling River. Downstream of Boiling River will be too warm until mid-September. Note that the Gardner saw overwhelming pressure in 2021 and generally fished poorly because of it.
• Lamar River & Tributaries: Runoff will end between June 15 and July 1 on Slough Creek and between June 20 and July 4 elsewhere. The best fishing will be for the month thereafter. Late August and early September will see low water and spooky fish, particularly on Slough Creek. Roadside areas saw overwhelming pressure in 2021 and 2022 might well be worse.
• Firehole River: The Firehole will not experience an appreciable runoff and will fish best between the park opener and June 10. The first hot/dry spell between June 10 and June 20 will shut down fishing until after Labor Day. We did not guide on the Firehole in 2021 and almost certainly will not in 2022, either. If current climate models continue, the Firehole will cease to be a relevant fishery downstream of Old Faithful by 2030 due to repeated fish kills associated with high water temperatures.
• Gibbon River: The Gibbon is unlikely to experience an appreciable runoff and will be best between June 1 and June 15. After June 15, the first hot spell will shut the fishing off until September 1.
• Upper Madison River: Generally similar to the Firehole but will hang on for a few days after the first hot spell.
• Lakes in YNP: Ice-out will depend on day-to-day weather but should occur around Opening Day. All should be accessible from this point onward due to limited snow on the trails. All will fish best from ice-out (or Opening Day, whichever comes second) through June, then trail off through July.
• Creeks in YNP: Meadow-type streams will become fishable between June 5 and June 25, with those draining lakes becoming fishable towards the earlier end and those draining mountains falling into shape later. All will be best for the first month after they come in. Rough, mountain creeks will come into shape between June 15 and July 4 and be best for a month starting about a week after they fall into shape.

Snowpack Report and Summer Streamflow and Fishing Outlook: Early March Update

Posted on March 3rd, 2022 in Area Fishing News, Season Forecasts, Weather & Water Conditions

Introduction, Current Conditions, and Long-Range Outlooks

Here in Yellowstone Country, winter snowpack and how this snowpack melts from late April through June play the most important roles in summer water supply for both fish and agriculture from early June through mid-September. June through mid-September temperatures and rainfall play a secondary role. Only after mid-September does day-to-day weather play the largest role in overall water levels and water quality. Winter weather is thus very helpful in planning summer fishing trips to the region.

On the heels of low snowpack in 2020-2021 followed by a record warm, dry summer that came early, we are currently in severe to extreme drought throughout the YCFF operations area. Montana is in worse shape as far as drought than any other region in the West except for Oregon east of the Cascade Range. Unfortunately, current snowpack is very low, so these conditions are not likely to improve much. Current snowpack ranges from 77% to 85% of normal for the date in our ops area, with the two most important basins (the Yellowstone River basins in Wyoming and Montana) at 85% and 81% of normal, respectively.

Montana snowpack as of March 3, 2022. Our operations area is circled in red.

The culprit for the above low snowpack is simple: we had very little fall and early winter snow, lots of snow from about December 10 through New Year, and almost none since. January and February snowfall were record-low in many areas throughout the region. The following graphic is from the Two Ocean Plateau Snotel, a high-elevation snow data sensor at 9240 feet near Yellowstone Park’s southern boundary, in the Wyoming portion of the Upper Yellowstone basin. Notice the flatline. That’s this year’s water. The smooth green line is mean snowpack for the date. The jerky green line is median snowpack for the date.

The past week has been awful for snowpack, with temperatures reaching into the 40s even in the mountains and touching the mid-50s at valley level. Low-elevation snow is almost gone. Things do look to improve between now and mid-March, however. Cold, wet weather is in the forecast more or less as far as the eye can see. We hope it materializes. Such outlooks have been present throughout most of the winter but have rarely come to pass. The following graphics show the composite temperature and precip outlooks for the 6–10 day period and through March. This information is at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

Summary of Anticipated Water & Fishing Conditions

In a general sense, here’s what we expect for June through mid-September streamflow and fishing conditions. This is based on current conditions and the longer-range outlooks. Think of the following as something like a weather forecast from a week out: it’s too early for specifics, but the general outline is probably accurate. Spring fishing conditions depend on day-to-day weather; we hope for a late and slow start to the spring snowmelt.

• Below-normal snowpack and resulting summer streamflows are now basically certain. How low we go depends on how much moisture we get through mid-May and how the snow melts from late April onward. Record-low water in late summer is very possible.
• We anticipate a light snowmelt and an early end to the snowmelt cycle. The end point will depend on when the snow starts melting in earnest.
• Late June and July fishing conditions will generally be better than August and early September conditions.
• The fish are likely to be spooky and difficult for much of the season.
• If we have a hot/dry summer, 2:00PM fishing closures will be common to universal across our operations area between July 25 and August 25. Closures outside of these timeframes are possible if we have an early extreme warmup as we did in 2021.
• Fires and smoke from both local and distant fires are likely to be very bad this year beginning in mid-July.
• Due to the winding-down of COVID (we hope) prompting high tourism, as well as the rapidly increasing population in the region, fishing pressure will be intense from the end of runoff through early October, assuming fires and stream closures allow for it. The quality of the fishing will not play any role in how many people are on the water.

Detailed Fishing Conditions by Water

The following information is still quite general, as we still don’t know exactly how much snow we will get or when and how this snow will melt. In general, more snow and a later melt will push things towards the latter end of the following date ranges, increase overall summer streamflows, improve the fishing in late July and August, and reduce fishing quality in June, while little moisture for the remainder of winter and early spring and an early start to the melt will have opposite effects.

Fishing beginning in early-mid September depends more on day-to-day weather than snowmelt. In general, the fishing AFTER September 15 will probably be better than the fishing BEFORE unless we see unusual weather. We DID see unusual weather in 2021; early September was cool and wet while late September was warm and bright, so fishing was much better in early September last year. This was very odd.

Montana Fisheries

• Yellowstone River: Runoff will end between June 5 and June 25, with June 15-20 now most likely. The fishing will be best for the month to six weeks after runoff starts to trail off. Hot, bright days in August and early September will be very difficult, particularly in shallow, gentle sections of river.
• Madison River: The Lower Madison will not experience any appreciable runoff and will be best prior to June 15. After June 20 it may be too warm after noon depending on day-to-day weather. The Upper Madison (really outside my ops area) will likewise probably not experience much of a runoff. It will be best from mid-June through mid-July.
• Boulder River: Runoff will end between June 1 and June 20, with June 15 most likely. The river is likely to get too low to float no later than July 15, and perhaps sooner. High water temps and low flows will almost certainly be a problem even for wade-fishing in August due to this small river’s intense irrigation drawdowns.
• Stillwater River: Runoff will end between June 1 and June 25, with June 15-20 most likely. Upper sections will be too low to float around July 10-15. Lower portions downstream of the Rosebud confluence will be high enough to float through late August. The best fishing will occur in July.
• Missouri River: No appreciable runoff will occur. It’s actually pretty unlikely flows from Holter Dam will change much at all from the current 3000-odd CFS levels this spring. The carp/walleye/pike water upstream from Canyon Ferry Reservoir will as always fish best from late July through early September. The trout water downstream of Canyon Ferry (including “Land of Giants”) will fish best from now through June.
• Private Lakes: Day-to-day weather is more imporant on the lakes than snowmelt. These lakes should fish well from early April through at least mid-June, with hot/bright weather thereafter the determining factor on when things get slow.
• Paradise Valley Spring Creeks: Fishing is always best on the creeks from early March through April, then again from about June 20 through July 20. Unfortunately, radically-increasing pressure on the creeks now means that many prime dates in June-July 2023 are now booked solid. We’re basically done guiding on these creeks except in March-April because of this.
• Other Waters: The Gallatin River will likely drop out of runoff in mid-June and possibly get too warm by late July. The Jefferson River will drop from runoff by mid-June and probably be too warm the instant it does. Immense fish kills occurred on this river in 2021 and this year will be no better. Many portions may honestly never recover, given the likely future flows and water temps current climate models predict. Montana small streams will generally fish best in July but will also be okay in August provided they don’t get TOO skinny. Public lakes in Montana will be best in May and June.

Yellowstone Park Fisheries

• Yellowstone River: The Lake-Falls stretch always opens July 15. It will be best for the two weeks thereafter. The Grand Canyon from the Falls to the Lamar confluence may not experience an unfishable runoff. If it does become too high, it will clear no later than June 10-15. It will be best in late June and July but should produce for the remainder of the season if it does not get too warm. The Black Canyon section downstream of the Lamar confluence tracks similarly to the Yellowstone River outside the park.
• Gardner River: The Gardner will be fishable on a day-to-day basis from the park opener through mid-June, then be good through early July throughout and after early July only upstream from Boiling River. Downstream of Boiling River will be too warm until mid-September. Note that the Gardner saw overwhelming pressure in 2021 and generally fished poorly because of it.
• Lamar River & Tributaries: Runoff will end between June 15 and July 1 on Slough Creek and between June 20 and July 4 elsewhere. The best fishing will be for the month thereafter. Late August and early September will see low water and spooky fish, particularly on Slough Creek. Roadside areas saw overwhelming pressure in 2021 and 2022 might well be worse.
• Firehole River: The Firehole will not experience an appreciable runoff and will fish best between the park opener and June 10. The first hot/dry spell between June 10 and June 25 will shut down fishing until after Labor Day.
• Gibbon River: The Gibbon is unlikely to experience an appreciable runoff and will be best between June 1 and June 15. After June 15, the first hot spell will shut the fishing off until September 1.
• Upper Madison River: Generally similar to the Firehole but will hang on for a few days after the first hot spell.
• Lakes in YNP: Ice-out will depend on day-to-day weather but should occur around Opening Day. All should be accessible from this point onward due to limited snow on the trails. All will fish best from ice-out (or Opening Day, whichever comes second) through June, then trail off through July.
• Creeks in YNP: Meadow-type streams will become fishable between June 5 and June 25, with those draining lakes becoming fishable towards the earlier end and those draining mountains falling into shape later. All will be best for the first month after they come in. Rough, mountain creeks will come into shape between June 15 and July 4 and be best for a month starting about a week after they fall into shape.

Snowpack Report and Predictions for Summer Streamflow and Fishing Conditions – Mid-February Update

Posted on February 17th, 2022 in Season Forecasts, Weather & Water Conditions

Introduction, Current Conditions, and Long-Range Outlooks

Here in Yellowstone Country, winter snowpack and how this snowpack melts from late April through June play the most important roles in summer water supply for both fish and agriculture from early June through mid-September. June through mid-September temperatures and rainfall play a secondary role. Only after mid-September does day-to-day weather play the largest role in overall water levels and water quality. Winter weather is thus very helpful in planning summer fishing trips to the region.

On the heels of low snowpack in 2020-2021 followed by a record warm, dry summer that came early, we are currently in severe to extreme drought throughout the YCFF operations area. Montana is in worse shape as far as drought than any other region in the West except for Oregon east of the Cascade Range. Unfortunately, current snowpack is very low, so these conditions are not likely to improve much. Current snowpack ranges from 80% to 89% of normal in our ops area, with the two most important basins (the Yellowstone River basins in Wyoming and Montana) at 85% and 82% of normal, respectively.

Snowpack as of Feb 17. Our operations area is circled in red. Snowpack for Wyoming and YNP basins in our operations area is noted at bottom left.

The culprit for the above low snowpack is simple: we had very little fall and early winter snow, lots of snow from about December 10 through New Year, and almost none since. January and early February snowfall may very well have been record-low in many areas throughout the region. Bridger Bowl, the closest ski area, only has a bit over half of its normal snowbase for the date, and much of that fell in the past two days. The following graphic is from the Two Ocean Plateau Snotel, a high-elevation snow data sensor at 9240 feet near Yellowstone Park’s southern boundary, in the Wyoming portion of the Upper Yellowstone basin. Notice the flatline. That’s this year’s water. The smooth green line is mean snowpack for the date. The jerky green line is median snowpack for the date.

We are currently in a slightly wetter phase, with a potentially substantial storm likely over the Presidents’ Day Weekend coming up. This storm should move the needle in a positive direction. After that, intermediate-term outlooks as of February 17 call for cold but dry conditions over the 6-10 and 8-14 day periods. The monthly outlook for March calls for above normal precipitation. Let’s hope this is correct. The three-month outlook for March through May is inconclusive, with equal chances of above normal, normal, and below normal temps and precip. We hope things slant cool and wet. Unfortunately, summer outlooks are calling for hot and dry conditions.

Summary of Anticipated Water & Fishing Conditions

In a general sense, here’s what we expect for June through mid-September streamflow and fishing conditions. This is based on current conditions and the longer-range outlooks. Think of the following as something like a weather forecast from a week out: it’s too early for specifics, but the general outline is probably accurate. Spring fishing conditions depend on day-to-day weather; we hope for a late and slow start to the spring snowmelt.

• Below-normal snowpack and resulting summer streamflows are now basically certain. How low we go depends on how much moisture we get through mid-May and how the snow melts from late April onward. Record-low water in late summer is very possible.
• We anticipate a light snowmelt and an early to normal end to the snowmelt cycle. The end point will depend on when the snow starts melting in earnest.
• Late June and July fishing conditions will generally be better than August and early September conditions.
• The fish are likely to be spooky and difficult for much of the season.
• If we have a hot/dry summer, 2:00PM fishing closures will be common to universal across our operations area between July 25 and August 25. Closures outside of these timeframes are possible if we have an early extreme warmup as we did in 2021.
• Fires and smoke from both local and distant fires are likely to be very bad this year beginning in mid-July.
• Due to the winding-down of COVID (we hope) prompting high tourism, as well as the rapidly increasing population in the region, fishing pressure will be intense from the end of runoff through early October, assuming fires and stream closures allow for it. The quality of the fishing will not play any role in how many people are on the water.

Detailed Fishing Conditions by Water

The following information is still quite general, as we still don’t know exactly how much snow we will get or when and how this snow will melt. In general, more snow and a later melt will push things towards the latter end of the following date ranges, increase overall summer streamflows, improve the fishing in late July and August, and reduce fishing quality in June, while little moisture for the remainder of winter and early spring and an early start to the melt will have opposite effects.

Fishing beginning in early-mid September depends more on day-to-day weather than snowmelt. In general, the fishing AFTER September 15 will probably be better than the fishing BEFORE unless we see unusual weather. We DID see unusual weather in 2021; early September was cool and wet while late September was warm and bright, so fishing was much better in early September last year. This was very odd.

Montana Fisheries

• Yellowstone River: Runoff will end between June 5 and June 25, with June 15-20 now most likely. The fishing will be best for the month to six weeks after runoff starts to trail off. Hot, bright days in August and early September will be very difficult, particularly in shallow, gentle sections of river.
• Madison River: The Lower Madison will not experience any appreciable runoff and will be best prior to June 15. After June 20 it may be too warm after noon depending on day-to-day weather. The Upper Madison (really outside my ops area) will likewise probably not experience much of a runoff. It will be best from mid-June through mid-July.
• Boulder River: Runoff will end between June 1 and June 20, with June 15 most likely. The river is likely to get too low to float no later than July 15. High water temps and low flows will almost certainly be a problem even for wade-fishing in August due to this small river’s intense irrigation drawdowns.
• Stillwater River: Runoff will end between June 1 and June 25, with June 15-20 most likely. Upper sections will be too low to float around July 10-15. Lower portions downstream of the Rosebud confluence will be high enough to float through late August. The best fishing will occur in July.
• Missouri River: No appreciable runoff will occur. It’s actually pretty unlikely flows from Holter Dam will change much at all from the current 3000-odd CFS levels this spring. The carp/walleye/pike water upstream from Canyon Ferry Reservoir will as always fish best from late July through early September. The trout water downstream of Canyon Ferry (including “Land of Giants”) will fish best from now through June.
• Private Lakes: Day-to-day weather is more imporant on the lakes than snowmelt. These lakes should fish well from early April through at least mid-June, with hot/bright weather thereafter the determining factor on when things get slow.
• Paradise Valley Spring Creeks: Fishing is always best on the creeks from early March through April, then again from about June 20 through July 20. Unfortunately, radically-increasing pressure on the creeks now means that many prime dates in June-July 2023 are now booked solid. We’re basically done guiding on these creeks except in March-April because of this.
• Other Waters: The Gallatin River will likely drop out of runoff in mid-June and possibly get too warm by late July. The Jefferson River will drop from runoff by mid-June and probably be too warm the instant it does. Immense fish kills occurred on this river in 2021 and this year will be no better. Many portions may honestly never recover, given the likely future flows and water temps current climate models predict. Montana small streams will generally fish best in July but will also be okay in August provided they don’t get TOO skinny. Public lakes in Montana will be best in May and June.

Yellowstone Park Fisheries

• Yellowstone River: The Lake-Falls stretch always opens July 15. It will be best for the two weeks thereafter. The Grand Canyon from the Falls to the Lamar confluence may not experience an unfishable runoff. If it does become too high, it will clear no later than June 10-15. It will be best in late June and July but should produce for the remainder of the season if it does not get too warm. The Black Canyon section downstream of the Lamar confluence tracks similarly to the Yellowstone River outside the park.
• Gardner River: The Gardner will be fishable on a day-to-day basis from the park opener through mid-June, then be good through early July throughout and after early July only upstream from Boiling River. Downstream of Boiling River will be too warm until mid-September. Note that the Gardner saw overwhelming pressure in 2021 and generally fished poorly because of it.
• Lamar River & Tributaries: Runoff will end between June 15 and July 1 on Slough Creek and between June 20 and July 4 elsewhere. The best fishing will be for the month thereafter. Late August and early September will see low water and spooky fish, particularly on Slough Creek. Roadside areas saw overwhelming pressure in 2021 and 2022 might well be worse.
• Firehole River: The Firehole will not experience an appreciable runoff and will fish best between the park opener and June 10. The first hot/dry spell between June 10 and June 25 will shut down fishing until after Labor Day.
• Gibbon River: The Gibbon is unlikely to experience an appreciable runoff and will be best between June 1 and June 15. After June 15, the first hot spell will shut the fishing off until September 1.
• Upper Madison River: Generally similar to the Firehole but will hang on for a few days after the first hot spell.
• Lakes in YNP: Ice-out will depend on day-to-day weather but should occur around Opening Day. All should be accessible from this point onward due to limited snow on the trails. All will fish best from ice-out (or Opening Day, whichever comes second) through June, then trail off through July.
• Creeks in YNP: Meadow-type streams will become fishable between June 5 and June 25, with those draining lakes becoming fishable towards the earlier end and those draining mountains falling into shape later. All will be best for the first month after they come in. Rough, mountain creeks will come into shape between June 15 and July 4 and be best for a month starting about a week after they fall into shape.