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Early February Snowpack Report – Do Your Snow Dances
Posted on February 2nd, 2022 in Area Fishing News, Season Forecasts, Weather & Water Conditions
I won’t bury the lede. We have had a warm, dry winter in Montana. Coming on the heels of record heat and drought last summer and a warm, dry winter in 2020-2021, we desperately need snow.
As of right now, the numbers don’t look too bad. I’ll let the following map do the talking. Our operations area is outlined in red:
The problem is that these numbers are showing across the board declines over the past month. While the east has been getting pummeled by storm after storm, we have been in a horrific dry spell. The above are percentages of normal for the date, meaning that here in Livingston we’re at 85% of normal accumulated snowpack for this time of year, since we’re in the Upper Yellowstone basin. In early January, we were 15 points higher. The Madison/Gallatin basin in YNP was more like 30 points higher. The basic problem is that January is historically one of our three snowiest months, along with March and April. For all intents and purposes, it has not snowed at all in the past month.
Long-range outlooks through February 10 or so suggest continued warm and dry conditions. After February 10, a possible shift to cold/wet conditions is possible. We want this shift. In general, we prefer normal to slightly high snowpack to keep our waters running cold through the summer. To have any hope of getting such conditions for summer, we really need to shift during February rather than later, since we have such a debt to make up after last year. All of Montana and western Wyoming is in severe, extreme, or exceptional drought, the three worst categories. Without substantial improvement to snowpack, our drought situation and therefore summer/fall streamflows will not improve.
It is still early enough we can’t make set-in-stone predictions about summer streamflows and fishing conditions. Our first in-depth predictions will come around March 1. Even so, the following conditions seem likely given our drought situation and current snowpack numbers:
- We anticipate an early end to the spring snowmelt and low flows overall. Even if snowpack improves to near-normal, this still seems likely.
- Water conditions will be better from sometime in the latter half of June through July than they are in August and early September. Precise dates will depend on how much snowpack changes (hopefully improves) and when this snow melts.
- Low, warm water is likely. Poor fishing conditions on some low-elevation waters are basically certain, and at least some 2:00PM fishing closures are probable. Last summer such closures were universal between late July and late August. Without substantial improvement, we are headed for similar closures in 2022.
We will put up another update in mid-February, hopefully with an improvement in snowpack or at least better prospects for snow to report.
Newsletter for Winter 21-22
Posted on December 26th, 2021 in Newsletters
Got an hour to kill? Want to read a truly massive fishing newsletter?
Hebgen Dam Malfunction Effects on the 2022 Fly Fishing Season
Posted on December 3rd, 2021 in Area Fishing News, Season Forecasts, Weather & Water Conditions
As many readers will know, Hebgen Dam on the Madison River malfunctioned the morning of November 30. In this post, we give a summary of the problem, immediate efforts to rescue stranded fish, and impacts. We then make some guesses on the effects of Hebgen Dam malfunction on the 2022 Montana fly fishing season.
Summary of the Hebgen Dam Malfunction
Around midnight on Tuesday the 30th, a dam component broke and caused the dam’s outlet gate to immediately shut. This Hebgen Dam malfunction reduced the river’s flow from just under 700cfs to under 200cfs (half the record low flow) in about 30 seconds. Imagine the latch that keeps an extendable ladder extended suddenly breaking and the ladder collapsing abruptly to its folded length.
This abrupt cut in flows did not leave time for fish (trout and forage both) in side channels and other shallow areas to flee to deeper areas and left brown trout redds full of fertilized eggs from the recent spawn high and dry. Here are more details on the problem. Repairs on the dam were completed just after midnight on Thursday December 2, meaning fish in side channels were trapped and eggs left exposed for about 48 hours. The impacts were highest between Hebgen and Quake Lakes, where the drop in flows was most abrupt and only a couple tiny tributaries enter to keep flows slightly higher.
On Wednesday December 1, volunteers coordinated by Montana FWP staff conducted a salvage operation to move fish trapped in deep spots in cut-off side channels to the main channel while avoiding redds that were still damp. Most fish moved were sculpins and some small trout. Most dead fish found were small trout. It seems that most larger trout were already in deeper water (typical for winter water conditions) or were strong enough to wriggle over the shallow gravel while it still had any water at all flowing over it. That said, the largest trout rescued were over 24 inches in length.
Despite the above efforts and the relatively short period before flows returned to normal, a fish kill of unknown proportions is certain. Additionally, a substantial loss of the 2021 brown trout spawn is also certain. The worst fish kill seems likely to have occurred immediately below the dam. The worst egg loss is likely the entire section between Hebgen Dam and natural Quake Lake downstream. Both impacts gradually decrease the further downstream you travel, with the trout kill in particular much lower by Cameron, Montana, about halfway between Quake Lake and Ennis Lake. Impacts on redds are likely present throughout the Madison between Hebgen Dam and Ennis Lake.
Several factors probably help reduce the overall impacts of the dam failure:
- The weather: It has been extremely warm in Montana lately. This means that most isolated side channels did not freeze overnight, even at the surface. In effect, the side channels cut off from the main river were briefly turned into shallow ponds in which fish were trapped. While stressful, since these areas did not freeze, most fish trapped in the deep spots in side channels did and will survive.
- The season: Most fish, adult trout in particular, were already in winter holding areas of deep areas of the main channel or – in the case of fish “Between the Lakes” between Hebgen Dam and Quake Lake – down in Quake Lake. Compared to summer, when many fish move into side channels to get out of heavier currents in the mainstem and/or to feed, many fewer fish were trapped.
- Prompt and massive recovery efforts: A huge turnout on Wednesday December 1 from Ennis, West Yellowstone, and Bozeman fishing guides, anglers, and concerned locals to help FWP relocate trapped fish meant that many fish, particularly trapped sculpins, were moved to safety in the mainstem. So many volunteers turned out that many were not required to join recovery efforts since all publicly-accessible areas were covered.
Montana FWP instituted an immediate emergency fishing closure on the entire Madison River from Hebgen Dam to Ennis Lake when notified of the crisis. To our surprise, this closure was lifted as of Friday, December 3. We expected it would be continued for quite some time and honestly are a bit horrified that it was lifted.
We encourage all anglers to AVOID this stretch of the Madison through the winter and spring months to allow the fish time to recover and to ensure no angler impacts on remaining brown trout redds and the upcoming rainbow trout spawn. The lower Madison near Bozeman is below Ennis Lake and was unaffected by the dam malfunction. The Yellowstone Park section was likewise unaffected.
Effects of the Hebgen Dam Malfunction on the Madison River
Effects on the Madison River itself remain to be seen but are likely to be substantial and last through the 2022 season and beyond. These impacts will be highest between Hebgen and Quake Lakes and lowest between Varney Bridge and Ennis Lake. The lower Madison River downstream of Ennis Dam (including the Beartrap Canyon) will be unaffected since Ennis Dam had normal water releases during the crisis.
Likely effects include:
- Slightly reduced overall trout counts: While the overall fish kill is probably not as bad as initially feared, some trout certainly died after their holding areas dried up and others will die because of the immense stress they underwent between suddenly being trapped in shallow, exposed areas and the stress of being trapped and moved to refuge in the main channel. Immediate fish kills will be concentrated on smaller trout and sculpins, while stress-related mortality will be heavier among larger trout.
- A substantial loss of the 2021 year-class of brown trout: While not a total loss, we expect the 2021 brown trout spawn to be a disaster, especially in the “Between the Lakes” stretch and probably down to Lyons Bridge. This loss will be more and more apparent as time progresses and this year’s eggs reach catchable and then spawning size. Another poor spawn is likely in about 2026 since fewer spawning-size brown trout will be present. This impact comes on the heels of an unexplained reduction in brown trout numbers across SW Montana that has occurred over the past several seasons.
- Reduced sculpin populations: Sculpins are big trout food and there will be a lot less of them in 2022. Maybe the trout will eat flies better? Maybe they’ll shift more to stoneflies or smaller forage? Maybe they’ll just be skinny?
- Reduced insect populations: Almost all insects trapped in channels that went dry will have died. Like the sculpins they should bounce back quickly, but see above about potential impacts to the trout.
When the Hebgen dam malfunction first occurred, we anticipated widespread and long-term angling closures on the river. At the moment, it does not seem that these will be instituted. We believe some closures SHOULD take place. We will be writing a letter to Montana FWP as a permitted outfitter on the river and thus a stakeholder suggesting as such. We believe:
- The Madison should be closed between Hebgen Dam and Ennis Lake from now through the third Saturday in May, 2022 to give the fish a break and to allow an unimpeded rainbow trout spawn.
- The Madison should be closed either between Hebgen and Lyons Bridge or between Hebgen Dam and Ennis Lake from October 15, 2022 and the third Saturday in May, 2023, to allow unimpeded brown and rainbow trout spawns.
The above changes would allow populations to return to normal for the future without unduly hurting area anglers and guides. Note that the traditional season opener from Quake Lake to Lyons Bridge was historically the third Saturday in May. This date was only changed about five years ago.
Effects of the Malfunction on Other Waters
We must first note that the “Between the Lakes” and “Fifty Mile Riffle” sections of the Madison River impacted by this disaster are not in our core operations area. In fact we are not authorized to guide between Hebgen Dam and Quake Lake and only run about one or two trips per season between Quake Lake and Ennis Lake. So the direct impacts of the Hebgen Dam malfunction, fish kill, and damage to the brown trout spawn on our operations and most of our Livingston-based clientele will be nonexistent.
Impacts on other waters will not be direct. Even the Missouri River of which the Madison is a source was and will remain unimpacted, since Ennis Lake downstream had normal water releases into the Missouri downstream.
Indirect effects may be present. These are all “possibilities,” rather than certainties:
- Increased guide traffic on other waters: With reduced fish numbers on the Madison, many Bozeman-area guides may opt to float the Yellowstone River instead. Other waters like the Gallatin, Ruby, Jefferson, or other stretches of the Madison may see similar changes for a year or two.
- Reduced angler traffic to the region overall: A small but noticeable drop in visiting anglers occurred on the Yellowstone River due to oil spills FAR downstream that occurred several years ago. These oil spills had no impact whatsoever on the Yellowstone as a trout fishery since they occurred far downstream, but bad publicity is bad publicity. A few visitors may stay away because of this.
- Widespread regulations changes to protect spawning trout: With proposals already being floated to reduce angling pressure during the brown trout spawn due to the aforementioned reduction in brown trout numbers region-wide, it’s possible FWP will implement widespread October-spring closures to protect this spawn not just on the Madison, but on most rivers.
- Increased oversight of public utilities: Let’s hope… This isn’t the first time Hebgen Dam has failed, a pipeline has ruptured, sewage has been dumped directly into rivers, etc. etc.
Fly Tying Materials to Buy in Person: Hen Hackle Skins
Posted on November 22nd, 2021 in Fishing Tips
As a commercial fly tier and outfitter, I have commercial accounts with most of the major fly tying materials distributors. I’m not allowed to talk about my discounts, specifically, but they are substantial. Flies you buy from me or from Parks’ Fly Shop would cost you twice as much, otherwise.
That said, there are still several materials I am willing to buy at full-price or very close to it, either from a fly shop or some alternate source. This is the first in a series of posts about these materials, and why they’re worth it for me to spend a lot more on them.
Hen Skins for Soft Hackles
The first material I usually buy at full price, and the one on which I probably spend the most, is hen chicken skins for soft hackles (and to a lesser extent streamers). I also buy many other bird skins for soft hackles at full price, such as hen pheasant skins, but chicken skins are by far the most important.
There’s a simple reason why I pay full price for these skins: I can pick through them and get EXACTLY the coloration I want. If I bought these skins from large wholesale distributors, I’d be dealing with the luck of the draw. I’d get whatever the person responsible for packing my order happened to grab.
In the past, I got most of my hen skins exactly this way. At the time, I used a lot of Speckled India Hen Backs, mostly purchased from wholesaler Hareline Dubbing. These are wonderful products, available in a wide range of colors. The problem is that when I ordered half a dozen “brown” skins, say, I would get three that were dark brown with black bars, two that were almost entirely brown, and one that was medium brown with abundant random black speckles. Since I usually wanted the medium brown skins with abundant black speckles, the others largely went to waste (or I sold them).
A better option was to buy skins either in person or when I could see photos of the skin I was buying. This is possible with India Hen Backs, as many shops sell them. For my own purposes, since I need many more feathers than one skin can provide, I turned to furriers online.
I am going to be a bit of a jerk here and not give the website I most often use for these skins. They don’t sell all that many, and I use a lot of hen skins for soft hackles, streamers, collars on Woolly Buggers (such as my PT-Bugger), and legs and tails on nymphs. Instead I’ll point you towards eBay. A wide range of chicken (and other bird) skins are available. You just have to keep searching for what you want. Search for hen skin, hen pelt, chicken pelt, bird skin, or other similar search terms.
Top Winter Dry Fly – Parachute Midge Emerger
Posted on November 12th, 2021 in Fishing Tips, Fly Tying Videos
Here’s a blast from the past that still works well. The Parachute Midge Emerger, along with something like a #18 Purple Hazy Cripple, should be your go-to dry fly when you see midges hatching on late fall and winter afternoons. This is my top winter dry fly just about everywhere: spring creeks, tailwaters, and the mighty Yellowstone itself. Hang an unweighted thread midge or WD-40 nymph under the emerger.
Hook: Standard or short-shank dry fly, #14-22.
Thread: 8/0 or smaller black, or to match the fly body color.
Wing: White Widow’s Web or similar synthetic.
Rib: Pearl Midge Krystal Flash.
Hackle: Grizzly saddle.
Hoot Owl Restrictions Start at 2:00PM, Wednesday 7-21-21
Posted on July 21st, 2021 in Area Fishing News, Weather & Water Conditions
We knew it’d happen. This summer’s extreme heat and drought just caused Montana FWP to shut down afternoon and evening fishing on the Yellowstone, lower Stillwater, Madison, and most of the Missouri starting tomorrow. We agree with this decision. It should be extended to large, famous waters in Yellowstone Park, as well.
This obviously puts a damper on our guiding. Here are remaining options:
- Morning half-day float trips on the Yellowstone River; for floats, this is probably our preferred option now.
- Full-day floats meeting no later than 6:00AM.
- Half-day and full-day walk-wade trips in Yellowstone Park; again, half-days are probably a better bet, though we can make a full-day work by sticking to small mountain streams in the afternoon.
- Full-day walk-wade trips in Montana: Basically these trips would be limited to the upper Stillwater.
- Walk-float combos: Another good option, though availability is limited. We’ll float early, then wade fish a small mountain stream in Montana later.
Do your rain dance, folks.
Here’s the full news release from FWP:
High temps prompt additional fishing restrictions on several Montana rivers
HELENA – Several angling restrictions on rivers in southwest, north-central and south-central Montana go into effect today due to warming temperatures and low flows.
The restrictions include what are commonly known as “hoot owl” restrictions, which means fishing is closed from 2 p.m. to midnight each day. Some waters are under full fishing closures, which prohibit fishing at all times of day. These closures and restrictions will stay in effect until conditions improve.
The following closure went into effect today:
- A full fishing closure for portions of the Shields River from the confluence with Yellowstone River to USFS Crandal Creek Bridge.
These closures go into effect, Wednesday, July 21, at 12:01 a.m.:
- A full fishing closure for portions of the Big Hole River from the confluence with the Beaverhead River to Tony Schoonen Fishing Access Site.
- A full fishing closure for portions of the Gallatin River from the mouth to Hwy 84 Crossing.
- A full fishing closure for the entire Jefferson River.
These restrictions go into effect, Wednesday, July 21, at 2 p.m.:
- Hoot owl restrictions for the entire reach of the Madison River from the mouth to the boundary with Yellowstone National Park.
- Hoot owl restrictions for portions of the Beaverhead River from the mouth to State Highway 91 South.
- Hoot owl restrictions for portions of the Missouri River from Town of Cascade Boat Ramp to Holter Dam.
- Hoot owl restrictions for portions of the Stillwater River from the confluence with Yellowstone River to Absaroka Fishing Access Site.
- Hoot owl restrictions for portions of the Yellowstone River Hwy 212 Bridge in Laurel to Yellowstone National Park boundary.
Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks’ drought policy provides for angling closures when flows drop below critical levels for fish, when water quality is diminished, or when maximum daily water temperatures reach at least 73 degrees for three consecutive days. Warm and dry conditions are expected to continue during the coming weeks.