2026 Season Forecast – Late April Update
Posted on April 24th, 2026
Introduction: We’re Heading for Drought. The Million Dollar Question is How Serious?
We got a below-average amount of snow this winter, winter was record-warm, the snow started melting six weeks early, and the summer outlooks are calling for hot and dry conditions. Those are the facts we’re dealing with this year. That said, recent cooler and wetter weather has reduced but by no means removed the potential for problems in late summer.
Here’s the short version of how things have changed from our previous post: the precipitous melt of the snowpack weeks or even months early has slowed and at the highest elevations stopped. We were either at record low amounts of snow for the date or rapidly heading that way depending on the snow sensor involved. The recent cooler weather and snowfall has flattened the slope of this curve and moved us firmly into “we’ve been here before” levels of snow deficit. Instead of record-poor snowpack for the date, we’re now looking at levels similar to 2001, 2006, 2007, 2012, 2013, 2015, 2016, 2021, and 2024. These years all saw very low, warm water in late summer, but except for 2007 and 2021, when we had hoot-owl closures on basically everything, and 2016, when a parasite shut down fishing on the Yellowstone River for a month, these years were all tolerable in August, and July was fine.
(Why’d I start in 2001 above? Because that’s when I started guiding and keeping notes.)
Are we out of the woods? By no means, and we won’t be until Labor Day. The woods are definitely thinner, though.
The following photo, a screencap of the Thumb Divide Snotel graph, tells the story:
2026 Fishing Season Forecast
Posted on April 11th, 2026
Introduction: We’re Heading for Serious Drought
We got a below-average amount of snow this winter, winter was record-warm, the snow started melting six weeks early, and the summer outlooks are calling for hot and dry conditions. Those are the facts we’re dealing with this year. Here’s how it will impact the fishing.
First, some photos, since they’re worth a thousand words.
In this first one, the core of our operations area is that 79% basin in southern Montana. Portions of our operations area extend into that 66% basin and the 84% to the northwest. As you can see, we’re low, but still better off than anywhere else in the West. Colorado, Utah, and Oregon are in absolutely dire straits.
2026 Yellowstone Area Streamflow and Fishing Predictions
Posted on February 22nd, 2026
Introduction
Winter snowpack and how this snowpack melts from April through mid-June are the most important factors in determining summer water levels and fishing conditions. They’re also important factors in “quality of life” aspects of summer fishing, such as how much wildfire smoke can be expected in late summer.
This is our post about snowpack and expected conditions for the 2026 season. This post will be updated every couple of weeks as conditions change, until roughly June 5 to June 15, when we expect all area fisheries to be finished with the spring melt and ready to go for the summer season. The most recent revision date is given below.
Updated on March 22, 2026
There are substantial changes in this update due to the recent spell of record heat as well as a forecast calling for more above-normal temperatures.
Westwide snowpack as of March 21, with YCFF operations area circled.