Season Forecasts Archives - Livingston Montana Fly Fishing Guides

Snowpack Update and Season Fishing Forecast for Mid-March 2023

Posted on March 16th, 2023 in Season Forecasts, Weather & Water Conditions

Introduction

Winter precipitation and temperatures create a deep snowpack in Yellowstone Country. The amount of snow, how cold and dense it gets (a cold winter = a dense snowpack), and how this snow melts between late March and late June are the primary drivers for our summer streamflows. Only after mid-September does day-to-day weather play a bigger role than the previous winter’s snow. Lots of winter snow, a cold winter, and a late, mellow spring make for a long, gentle release of meltwater through the summer that keeps flows high and cold and trout happy. A warm, dry winter makes for an early melt and great fishing early in the summer, but tough conditions later. A warm winter with lots of late snow makes for intense flooding, but low flows later on, basically the worst of both worlds. That’s what we had last year.

The state of the snowpack, weather outlooks, and (after mid-April) the progress of the spring melt all factor into trip planning, since they govern when the spring runoff will begin and end, how high flows will remain through the summer, the potential for high water temperatures and associated closures, etc.

Through the remainder of spring, we’ll be posting updates at mid-month and the end of the month about the current state of the snowpack, the weather outlooks from NOAA, and what we think these factors mean for late spring, summer, and early fall fishing on many important fisheries in the region.

Winter Weather Summary and Current Conditions

After a generally warm and dry fall, winter struck with a vengeance in Yellowstone Country and has hardly left. We have had at least some snow on the ground here in Livingston since the middle of November. Early snowfall through about December 20 was exceptionally strong. Then things died down a bit until mid-January. Since then we have seen normal to above normal snowfall. Temperatures have been normal or below normal except for about a week in mid-January and a day or two now and again in March. We’ve only hit 50 here in Livingston about 5 days this winter, and had two bouts with -20 to -35 lows and highs well below zero.

All that being said, the intense moisture that has bombarded California has generally skirted just to the south of our region. Areas in northern Utah have seen twice their normal snowfall, with ski areas already reporting 500+ inches of snow. Our local ski area (Bridger Bowl) has received about 200 inches since November 1, about normal.

This cold and normal to slightly wet winter we’ve had is a welcome reprieve from the past several years of below-normal snowfall that either didn’t recover until late in the season (2018-2019 and 2021-2022) or never recovered (2021, especially). Right now, basins within our operations area are running between 108% and 131% of normal for the date. The most important basins, the Yellowstone Basins in Wyoming (basically in Yellowstone Park) and in Montana (downstream of Yellowstone Park) are both at 108% as of this morning. We like to see 105%–110%, so we’re pretty happy so far.

Southwest Montana and northwest Wyoming snowpack for March 16, 2023

The real standout in our operations area is the Madison-Gallatin Basin in Yellowstone National Park, which is at 131% of normal. This basin in particular has lagged behind the Yellowstone basins in recent years, almost certainly due to the warm winters we’ve had which meant some of the moisture in the relatively low mountain ranges feeding this basin fell as rain even in the dead of winter. This high snowpack bodes well for keeping the Firehole, Lower Gibbon, and park sections of the Madison running cool later into the summer than normal, probably into July. At the very least, this high snowpack provides a cushion against an early warmup.

Spring Weather Outlooks

The one-month and three-month NOAA outlooks covering April and April through June, respectively, just came out this morning. While they both suggest a return to near-normal precipitation, the April outlook is still calling for below-normal temperatures through the entire region, while the April–June outlook suggests an equal chance of normal, above-normal, and below-normal temperatures. The Yellowstone area sits much lower to the part of the United States forecast to have below-normal temperatures than to areas supposed to be hotter-than-normal.

If the above proves accurate, we should be in for a spring melt with near-normal timing. That’s a good thing, and will put us on track for a start to “prime season” around the beginning of July, with enough water to last through the summer. This last point is an important one. With El Nino forecast to replace La Nina, along with the mounting impacts of global warming, the long-range outlooks are calling for ANOTHER hot/dry summer. The more water we have in the rivers, the slower they warm up in late July and August. Maybe we’ll be able to avoid 6:00AM meeting times even with hot weather? I like my beauty rest…

April through June NOAA outlooks

Predictions for Summer Fishing Conditions

General Comments

Assuming the long-range outlooks for spring are somewhat accurate, the snowpack as expressed as a percentage of normal should remain near current levels. That said, we’ve still got a month to gain or lose significant amounts of snowpack at all elevations, and more like 6–8 weeks in the highest mountains. So there’s still a considerable amount of uncertainty regarding what we’ll wind up with come the 1st of July when spring runoff is almost over. Consider that last season I expected drastically low water at this point in the winter due to a terrible snowpack and a very warm, dry March. Then we had the coldest April and wettest May in 25 years. We still finished with below-normal snowpack, but it didn’t start melting until May 20, the Yellowstone flooded June 13, and we didn’t start running floats on the Yellowstone until after July 4. Hopefully nothing as extreme happens again this year.

That said, based on current conditions and the predictions, we anticipate near normal to above normal streamflows this summer, beginning with a near normal spring melt beginning in early May. Cross your fingers. I think we could all appreciate some “normal” for the first time in a few years…

Based on current predictions and the long-range outlooks, here are some more-detailed guesstimates about the conditions we’ll see this summer on the main fisheries in the region, starting with Montana fisheries within about 90 minutes of Livignston and continuing with those in YNP. I begin each section with rivers (and river segments, if applicable) and finish with lakes, reservoirs, and other waters. Rivers are listed in the approximate order in which they should become fishable following the spring melt.

Detailed Predictions for Specific Fisheries – Montana

In general we expect good conditions in Montana this year. We like float rivers to have higher than normal flows, since a lot of their water gets pulled out for irrigation. The only question mark is when our core summer float rivers (the Yellowstone, Boulder, and Stillwater) come into shape. If we have a cold and wet spring, we might have a bit of a late start on these rivers. That said, the Lower Madison should have the highest flows it has seen since at least 2017 (maybe 2014?) and this river benefits hugely from high water. We’ll be running floats here in late May and June when we can’t in the Yellowstone Basin.

Madison River – Lower: The Lower Madison (Ennis Dam to Three Forks) seldom experiences an unfishable spring runoff. It also enters the runoff late, usually in the last few days of May. As such, this is the most important river fishery in the area from sometime in the middle of May when the Yellowstone enters runoff until late June or early July, when it comes back in. The Lower Madison is likely to get high and murky for two or three weeks in late May and early June this year, but remain fishable above Cherry Creek throughout the spring. Good snowpack upstream suggests the Lower Madison should remain fishable until at least July 4 this year, maybe as late as July 15. After this it will get too warm for about six weeks, not to mention crowded with the “bikini hatch.” The best fishing will occur just before runoff in mid-May, then again in early-mid June provided the clarity is good enough for hatches.
Madison River – Upper: The Upper Madison is likely to get too muddy to fish for about three weeks beginning in late May, particularly downstream of the West Fork. The strong snowpack in the basin suggests the Madison will run fairly high this season, which is a good thing. It keeps the fish closer to the banks and not quite as spooky. The Salmonfly hatch should pop on schedule the last week of June and first week of July. Note that I am offering Upper Madison trips this year, primarily in late June and early July before the Yellowstone drops but after the Lower Madison starts getting busy with recreational floaters.
Boulder River: The Boulder will rise to floatable level (in our new ultralight raft) the last week of April or first week of May before blowing out with runoff the third or fourth week of May. Runoff always yo-yos on this river and it is often fishable for a few days at a time during any cold spell in late May and June. This year it will probably leave runoff in the first few days of July and remain high enough to float with the big raft for 3–4 weeks, then for another 3 weeks with the new ultralight. The best fishing will occur in July.
Gallatin River: The Gallatin will enter the spring melt in mid-late May and stay there until around July 1. The runoff is likely to be heavy this year given the heavy snowpack in the Gallatin Basin. Lone Peak Snotel at Big Sky Resort is reporting 135% of normal snowpack! As such, the best fishing will be in late July and August upstream from Gallatin Gateway. Downstream of Gateway, where irrigation drawdowns hurt flows, July will be best. Note that we will be offering float-wade trips on the Gallatin River this year for the first time, using our ultralight raft.
Stillwater River: The middle Stillwater upstream from the Rosebud confluence should drop into shape around June 25 to July 1 (latter more likely), while the area below the Rosebud will still be too high for at least ten days thereafter. We did much better above the Rosebud last year; further down suffered a lot from the floods. As such, we expect to stick to the middle river until at least early August, since our ultralight raft will allow us to stay on this stretch after it gets too low for full-size rafts. The lower river will probably fish better the lower it gets. We intend to explore it very late in the season this year with the ultralight, looking for run-up browns.
Yellowstone River – Paradise Valley and Near Gardiner: The Yellowstone will enter runoff sometime in the first three weeks of May, hopefully the 10th–15th. Except for a couple brief fishable windows during cold spells, it will remain in runoff until the first week of July on this section. Last year the river remained too dirty to fish well (particularly with dry flies, for numbers) prior to July 20, but a prolonged runoff should scour a lot of the silt brought in by last year’s flood, so we expect and hope for a normal start to the summer season. Salmonflies will occur right around when the river clears, hopefully just AFTER it clears, rather than just BEFORE. The most consistent fishing will occur in the latter half of July and August, if current snowpack trends continue until the melt.
Yellowstone River – Yankee Jim Canyon and East of Livingston: Due to heavy currents and lots of hazards, Yankee Jim Canyon and the area from Pine Creek near Livingston down to Laurel near Billings needs to drop more than other areas before we like fishing/guiding on it. Yankee Jim can be very good right before the spring melt in early May, while east of Livingston usually gets muddy a week before stretches upstream. Post-runoff, we expect these areas to drop below the 6000cfs level we like to see around July 15. The best fishing east of Livingston will be for the month thereafter. Yankee Jim will be best from early August through early October. Pine Creek to Hwy 89 (right through Livingston) is usually best in August and September.
Area Small Streams: Except for a few meadow-type odds and ends like the East Gallatin, most area small streams outside the park are steep, fast, and rocky. As such they’ll be too high to fish easily or well until late July. They’ll fish best in the afternoons from then until early September.
Private Lakes: The private lakes come into play in late April and remain good until sometime between June 20 and July 20, depending on medium-term weather and the specific lake. We have a trip June 26 on Burns Lake and wouldn’t mind a few after that.
Area Reservoirs: Low elevation reservoirs will begin icing out with the first big warmup. We will start exploring them with our new-to-us power boat in April and heavily in May, hoping to begin offering guided trips on them in June (more seriously next year). Except Dailey, which will slow down for trout in early-mid June, the reservoirs we guide will fish best in May and remain strong through June. High-elevation reservoirs like Hyalite, Hebgen, and Quake will remain strong all summer.
Other Waters: We are not really guiding on the Missouri River this year (except perhaps the stretch near Townsend for carp), but it is already fishing okay and will get very good once water levels rise to 40 degrees. Flows will get too high for comfortable wading in late May and early June but drop again by late June. The Ruby River should benefit from good snowpack in the basin. We may try to explore it with our ultralight raft in late May and June. This isn’t commonly seen as a float river, but with the ultralight it can be…

Detailed Predictions for Specific Fisheries – Yellowstone Park

The Yellowstone Park season runs from May 27 through October 31 this year, though as always many areas open later (check regulations) or are simply too high and muddy well into the summer. This should be a good year for park waters, especially since large portions of the park were inaccessible and received no fishing pressure at all last season. That’s got to be a welcome break for the poor fish in Soda Butte Creek. There will be big changes to the stream bottoms, structure, and even the courses of the streams on the Gardner, Soda Butte Creek, Slough Creek, and the Lamar River, but these waters all produced well in very limited samples at the end of the season last year.

The replacement North Entrance Road was finished in late October last year. There’s still likely to be some ongoing traffic control as this ad-hoc road is built up to code, but full access to Yellowstone Park is available via both Gardiner and Cooke City.

Firehole River: The Firehole is going to benefit from heavy snowpack in the basin, but maybe not right away. This might not be the season to make an opening weekend trip, depending on when the spring melt begins. It’s very possible the Firehole will be too high and murky for the first week of the season this year. It is likely to fish best from about June 10 through July 1, then fall off fast thereafter. That said, it should stay cooler than usual this summer, which is good news for the thermally-stressed fish that live here. This is the one river in the region that we’d love to fish from February through June more than the rest of the year, due to all the hot geyser water.
Madison River in YNP: Similar story as the Firehole, but even more likely to be too high, fast, and dirty early on. That said, the first three weeks of the season following cold, wet winters can turn out a lot of good browns and rainbows that ran up to spawn last fall and haven’t gone back to Hebgen Lake yet. The Madison will fish best in the latter half of June and again (as always) in September and October, but if we luck into a cool summer it MIGHT have enough water this year to fish mornings through July.
Gibbon River: Almost certain to be too high and murky the first ten days of the park season unless there’s a big warmup in early May. Once it becomes fishable, the stretch downstream of Norris Geyser Basin will fish best from June 10 through July 4, with the latter half of June tops. The stretch above Norris is now home to solid numbers of spooky westslope cutthroat and grayling that can get surprisingly large for such a small creek. This reach will come into shape in late June and fish best in July and August, as long as the mosquitoes don’t carry you away.
Park Lakes: Lakes in the park will ice-out over the first week of the season, except for a few small ponds like Joffe that will be ice-free right out of the gate. The difficulty in the first half of June will be accessing the lakes: lots of snow first, then lots of mud and waterlogged trails. Hiking into Grebe or Cascade Lake around June 10 may be an “in waders” affair. Most lakes will fish best from June 10 or 15 for a month thereafter. REMINDER Blacktail Ponds do not open until early July to protect rare ground-nesting birds.
Gardner River: The Gardner downstream of Boiling River can be fishable right from the start of the season during cold snaps. That said, this water changed hugely in the 2022 flood and may not be very good for several years. Access is also a question mark, as it is no longer near the road and there are no official hiking trails (yet). Upstream from Boiling River and especially upstream from Lava Creek did not suffer from the floods. This water will come into shape the last week of June or first week of July and fish best for numbers prior to mid-August. Thereafter, good fishing depends on fall brown trout runs from the Yellowstone. All of the runner holes between Lava Creek and Boiling River disappeared during the flood, so we don’t know what to expect for this fishing in 2023.
Gallatin River: The park stretch of the Gallatin has a very deep snowpack, so it’s not likely to clear before July 1 and might be ice water for another ten days thereafter. It will fish best from July 15 through Labor Day.
Yellowstone River – Grand Canyon: the Grand Canyon did not suffer from the floods and is fully accessible for the first time in several years now that the Tower Falls Trail rehab project is complete. This water fishes occasionally for the first week of the season following a cold spring, basically having not even ENTERED spring runoff yet, but this is unlikely this year with the high snowpack. It’s more likely to come in around July 1 and be best from July 15 through early October. This water holds on much better late into fall than other cutthroat water in the park. The Salmonflies occur in dribbles near hot springs as soon as the water clears, then will be heaviest around July 15, with dribbles near cold tributaries until after July 20.
Yellowstone River – Upper: The Yellowstone above Chittenden Bridge opened July 1 last year for some inexplicable reason. We don’t like this change from the historic July 15, since the cutthroats are still spawning here in early July. We therefore suggest holding off until July 15. The fishing will be best for the month thereafter.
Yellowstone River – Black Canyon: the Black Canyon of the Yellowstone tracks similarly to the “Paradise Valley and Near Gardiner” section. It should come in during the first week of July. The Salmonflies move upstream as the water warms, so the second and occasionally even the third week of July see it peak on this reach, with upstream areas near the Lamar peaking last. Dribbles of Salmonflies MIGHT hang on until the last few days of July here. The best fishing will occur from July 15 through Labor Day and then tail off through September.
Slough Creek: Very occasionally fishable for a few days out of the gate if we’ve had a cold spring. Runoff will really end after the 4th of July, probably between the 7th and 10th if the outlooks are accurate. The best fishing will be for the month thereafter. Fish in the First through Third Meadows got a real break last year, so they should be almost dumb for a week or two once the water clears.
Soda Butte Creek: Huge changes to Soda Butte’s course due to the floods make it something of a question mark in 2023. On the one hand the fish got a break for a season. There was literally no access to Soda Butte last year. On the other hand, lots of fish and bugs certainly died during the flood. Soda Butte should drop in between the 5th and 15th of July, with the best fishing from July 20 through September 20.
Lamar River: Similar to Soda Butte, though it suffered comparatively less. It fished well for the time of year in very limited action in October last year, once some access was restored.
Small Streams: Meadow-type creeks draining lakes should come in around June 20, while faster mountain-type creeks will come in early in July. The meadow creeks will fish best in July. The mountain creeks will fish best in August. All will fall off between mid-August and about September 10 depending on elevation, as the nights get cold.

Conclusion

All in all, we’re in good shape for the upcoming season. We would certainly like SLIGHTLY more snowpack to be sure there isn’t a dropoff in April and May, but we’re in far better shape than we have been at this point in the winter since 2017-2018. As long as we don’t get a repeat of a torrential rain-on-snow event in early June like we did last year, which caused the floods, we expect solid conditions this summer. It feels good to be optimistic about snowpack and likely water levels at this point in the season. 2021 and 2022 we had very little water and expected bad late July and August conditions. They materialized in 2021. 2022 threw us the flood curve ball. Let’s cross our fingers for a normal spring this year.

We’ll have another update in a couple weeks.

Snowpack Update for Feb 22 2023

Posted on February 22nd, 2023 in Newsletters, Season Forecasts, Weather & Water Conditions

After a wet past week and bitter cold weather (below zero in Livingston, probably -20 in YNP) snowpack has risen back to over 100% of normal for the date. This is great news. We had been trending steadily downward for the past 6–8 weeks in comparison to normal after a very cold and wet autumn.

We like snowpack to run 100–110% in our main basins (Yellowstone River in Montana and YNP, currently 102% and 104% of normal on the graphic) as of mid-May. This ensures enough water to keep the Yellowstone and its main tributaries like the Lamar, Gardner, Boulder, and Stillwater running high and cold all summer, which keeps the trout happy, but also for them to drop into fishable level and clarity at the normal time in the last week of June or first week of July, which keeps fishermen and guides happy. As of right now, we’re right on track for good conditions this summer.

Northwest Wyoming and south-central Montana snowpack numbers for February 22, 2023.

A couple of positive oddities in this map are worth noting.

First off is that the Yellowstone outside YNP is showing higher snowpack than inside the park. Again, 104%. This number actually factors in the snowpack in the upper Yellowstone Basin too, since it all flows downhill. All things considered, the mountains feeding the creeks between Gardiner and Livingston, plus the Shields, Boulder, and Stillwater Basins further east, actually have stronger snowpack than Yellowstone does. Since these basins all suffer from irrigation drawdowns and thus struggle to stay cold all summer, this solid snowpack could really help keep water temps on the Yellowstone east of Livingston cold all summer (no early-out at 2:00PM) and also keep the Boulder and Stillwater floatable will full-size rafts until later in the season. Both these rivers are floatable an extra month in our new ultralight raft (photo courtesy Smithfly) anyway, but the big raft is more roomy and comfortable.

The second oddity is even more exciting. The Madison-Gallatin basin in YNP is at 116% of normal. Usually this basin lags behind the basins further north, primarily because the mountains at the headwaters of the Madison basin in YNP feeding the Firehole and Gibbon Rivers are lower elevation than the ranges elsewhere, meaning the snow tends to skip overhead. The West Yellowstone SNOTEL sensor at relatively low elevation reports a whopping 131% of normal snowpack.

What’s all this mean for the Madison, Firehole, Gibbon, and Gallatin? Well, for right now it means nothing. A big warmup in May and June could melt all that snow in a hurry. That said, if current trends continue, the Firehole, Madison, and Gibbon will have much more cold water entering the system than usual, until later in the summer. Since warm water is the problem in these basins after about June 20, this could lead to a longer late spring fishing season on the Firehole, Gibbon, and Madison in YNP, possibly well into July when we’re usually done fishing this area until late September around June 20–25. Great news for Firehole fans!

If the above numbers hold, we could actually have a fishable Yellowstone, Boulder, and Gardner River at the same time we still have a fishable Firehole and Gibbon. Usually there’s a shaky week in late June or the first week of July when none of the above are prime, and I honestly can’t remember a year when both drainages are prime. Let’s hope this year is the outlier!

Our next snowpack update will drop sometime in the first half of March, especially if a big warmup or a giant storm substantially changes the above numbers. In the meantime, follow the westwide snowpack numbers at this link, which is updated daily. The drainages important to our operations are all near the junction of Wyoming and Montana.

Early February Snowpack Report

Posted on February 5th, 2023 in Season Forecasts, Weather & Water Conditions

This post is reprinted from our February 1 newsletter. Lots more there if you click!

Winter and spring snowpack and how this snow melts between late April and mid-June are the primary drivers for summer and early fall water conditions in our region (and most of the West). While there can be some surprises, like last year’s intense May and June snowfall followed by intense rain, which led to the June 2022 floods, we like to keep track of snowpack to help our clients start planning summer fishing trips. In general, we like snowpack to run about 110% of normal as of May 10 or so. This is enough extra moisture that it provides a cushion of cold water in late July and August to protect from summer heat waves, while still allowing for a near-normal end to runoff in the first week of July on our prime summer fisheries: the Yellowstone River System including its tributary basins in Yellowstone Park (Lamar and Gardner) and Montana (Boulder and Stillwater).

Our first update of the season is below. We’ll post further updates on our blog around twice a month.

Boulder River early July brown The Boulder River was the most consistent fishery in the area in early July last year.

We enjoyed a very promising start to winter, with abundant snow and cold temperatures in November and early December. Bridger Bowl ski area opened on time for the first time since 2019 (December 9), and only low staffing kept them from opening in mid-November for the first time in decades. Unfortunately, the snow stopped around Christmas and most of January was exceptionally dry. Only an immense snow storm last week saved January from perhaps being record-dry. Except for an early January blip, temperatures have generally been normal to cold, which is ideal. This puts whatever snow that does fall into a blast freezer and makes for slow melting come May and June, allowing more of the snow to enter the ground water. After the good start, poor late December and most of January, and big storm last week, snowpack in our operations area now ranges from 96% of normal to 127% if normal. These numbers refer to average snowpack for the date, not total snowfall for the entire year.

Snowpack on Feb 1, 2023

The Madison Basin in YNP is highest, at 127% of normal. This is a nice change of pace which–if it continues–might keep the Firehole and Gibbon Rivers in Yellowstone Park fishing well through June or into July this year. The Yellowstone Basins in Montana and YNP are lowest, at 96% and 97%. Other basins range between the two extremes, but generally run slightly above 100% of normal for the date. As the numbers suggest, we’re generally doing pretty good so far, though we would like the numbers in the Yellowstone Basin to rise somewhat.

The short-term outlooks until roughly mid-February don’t look promising for much more snowfall, but the one-month outlook for February and three-month outlook for February through April look promising.

NOAA temperature and precipitation outlooks for February through April, 2023

It’s still early to be making specific predictions on when various fisheries are going to be most productive, but I still try to stare into a crystal ball. With current conditions and predictions for the remainder of winter, I now expect the most consistent fishing on our usual high season fisheries to take place in the latter half of July and first half of August.

Late August conditions will be fine if snowpack remains near to above normal, and as usual September and October fishing depends more on day-to-day weather than it does on snowpack. Extreme drought like we saw in 2021 is not likely. As such, it’s unlikely the Yellowstone system will fish at all between the onset of runoff sometime in early May and at least June 20, with a day or two here and there on the Boulder and Gardner Rivers the only exceptions. The Madison River in Montana, Madison System in YNP, and area lakes will therefore be our primary fisheries in May and June.

If snowpack falls off from current numbers, it is still possible that somewhat-low snowpack will lead to early July being better in the Yellowstone System than late July and early August. That said, overall conditions look at least “within the normal range” so far, which should mean at least decent fishing throughout the high season.

The overall picture presented above will get clearer and clearer as winter and spring progress. Look for another update in mid-February.

Runoff Report and Season Fishing Forecast for Early June 2022

Posted on June 4th, 2022 in Area Fishing News, Season Forecasts, Weather & Water Conditions

Introduction, Current Conditions, and Long-Range Outlooks

Here in Yellowstone Country, winter snowpack and how this snowpack melts from late April through June play the most important roles in summer water supply for both fish and agriculture from early June through mid-September. June through mid-September temperatures and rainfall play a secondary role. Only after mid-September does day-to-day weather play the largest role in overall water levels and water quality. Winter and spring weather are thus very helpful in planning summer fishing trips to the region.

On the heels of low snowpack in 2020-2021 followed by a record warm, dry summer that came early and a dry winter, as of April 1 we were mired in severe to extreme drought throughout the region. Thankfully, we have had an exceptionally cool, wet spring that has done a great job in reducing the drought. It’s by no means gone, but conditions have improved. The following graphic shows we’re primarily in moderate drought, with some severe drought in Yellowstone Park. While this isn’t ideal, it’s better than we’ve seen since 2020.

Moreover, snowpack for the date is extremely high. This does not reflect how much snow actually fell this past winter and spring. Instead it shows how much there is on the ground compared to average for this date. Since we’ve had such a cold, wet spring, a whole lot of snow remains to melt. In general, the later and slower the snow melts, the more of it goes into the ground rather than running straight off to North Dakota. Due to the high remaining snowpack and the exceptionally late melt, we expect water levels to be near-average from July through September, even with the drought.

YCFF operations area (roughly) circled in red.

The abundant spring moisture and late melt means that most waters have not yet reached their peak streamflows for the year. On most streams this occurs between May 20 and June 1 in an average year. This year, most waters will reach peak flows in mid-June. Only geyser-heated waters draining low mountains in Yellowstone Park have already reached their peaks. The following graphic shows predicted flows for the Yellowstone River throughout the season. Combined with the graphic above and the weather forecast for the next two weeks, we expect the Yellowstone River to hit max flow around June 13–17. The Yellowstone generally drops into fishable condition about two weeks after it hits peak flow.

Forecast flow graph for the Yellowstone River through summer 2022.

The thin red line indicates the likely flow rate at which the Yellowstone will become fishable this year. This hits the “50/50” prediction for forecast flows around the beginning of July. These forecasts tend to predict slightly higher flows than actually occur, and this forecast was made during a cold/wet spell.

Visit NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center for the full range of long-term outlooks as well as lots of information on ENSO, assorted oscillations, and other weather and climate info that goes right over my head.

Summary of Anticipated Water & Fishing Conditions

In a general sense, here’s what we expect for June through mid-September streamflow and fishing conditions. This is based on current conditions and the longer-range outlooks. While this isn’t a “weather forecast,” it’s now late enough into the year that only extreme, prolonged summer heat and drought will change this forecast substantially for the worse.

The spring runoff is near its peak. Due to an extremely cold spring, peak snowmelt on all waters is occurring one to three weeks later than average. This is good for late summer flows, not so good for fishing right now.
After the heavy melt hits and then recedes, the most consistent fishing is likely to occur from about July 4 through sometime in August. Due to the late melt, we DO NOT expect any poor conditions in August and September. It’s fish will just be spookier and more erratic then.
Near-normal to slightly-below-normal streamflows are now certain, but only after mid-late July. The late runoff means that it is going to take a long time for the water to drop. The late summer low flows will not be extreme and should not have any large impact on the fishing conditions.
Runoff has been late and will see below-median peak flows on most rivers, but will end on an average to slightly later than average date. The Yellowstone usually drops into fishable shape between June 25 and July 4. This year it will come in around July 1 barring extended late June heat.
The most consistent fishing will occur in July and early August, but the entire July through October core season should see good water conditions. This is a huge improvement from early spring predictions, when we expected very bad conditions in August and September.
We do not expect any widespread fishing restrictions due to heat and drought. Only rivers that always or almost always see restrictions (the Lower Madison, Jefferson, Smith, Sun, Shields, and other minor summer fisheries at low elevations in Montana) are likely to see 2:00 fishing closures. On some hot, sunny days in late July and August the late afternoon fishing will be poor, but this is always the case.
Due to tinderbox conditions throughout most of the West, fires and smoke from both local and distant fires are likely to be very bad this year beginning in late July.
Due to the winding-down of COVID (we hope) prompting high tourism, as well as the rapidly increasing population in the region, fishing pressure will be intense from the end of runoff through early October, assuming fires and stream closures allow for it. The quality of the fishing will not play any role in how many people are on the water. We are already seeing much more fishing pressure than used to be typical, including record-high bookings for all of spring.

Detailed Fishing Conditions by Water

There have been substantial changes to the following forecasts due to the abundant snow and cold weather we’ve enjoyed in April and early May. In particular, we no longer expect 2:00PM closures in late summer unless we have an extreme heat wave save on rivers that almost always have them, such as the lower Madison River.

Since runoff has now begun in earnest, we are growing much more confident about the accuracy of the following date ranges. If you haven’t booked your lodging or guide service, we suggest doing so ASAP since availability of both is now getting sparse.

Montana Fisheries

Yellowstone River: Runoff will end between June 25 and July 4, with July 1 most likely. The Salmonfly hatch will occur for about a week immediately after runoff recedes. It is possible the earliest days of the hatch will see conditions too high and muddy to fish. The fishing will be best on slower, shallower sections of river in July and early August, but should be at least fair all season. Faster, deeper water upstream from Livingston should produce well all season. Only record heat and drought in July will change this prediction.
Madison River: The Lower Madison will not experience any appreciable runoff and will be best prior to July 1. After July 4 it will generally run too warm after noon depending on day-to-day weather. The Upper Madison (really outside my ops area) will likewise probably not experience much of a runoff. It will be best from mid-June through late July.
Boulder River: Runoff will end late due to intense recent snow. June 25 to July 4 is a reasonable window for the end of the melt, with July 1 most likely. The river will get too low to float by August 1, and perhaps sooner. High water temps and low flows will almost certainly be a problem even for wade-fishing in August due to this small river’s intense irrigation drawdowns. The Boulder seldom sees any fishing restrictions due to water levels or temperature, but in all honesty I expect areas downstream of Natural Bridge should be closed 24 hours a day in August, due as much to irrigation drawdowns as water temps.
Stillwater River: Runoff will end around July 1 most likely. Upper sections will be too low to float around August 1. Lower portions downstream of the Rosebud confluence will remain high enough to float until at least September 1 and possibly through September. Late summer rains will be required for float-fishing to remain an option after roughly Labor Day. The best fishing will occur in July and August, but should be decent so long as flows remain high enough to allow floating. This river will offer our best “action/numbers/dry flies” fishing this year.
Missouri River: No appreciable runoff will occur. The carp/walleye/pike water upstream from Canyon Ferry Reservoir will as always fish best from late July through early September. The trout water downstream of Canyon Ferry (including “Land of Giants”) will fish best from now through June.
Private Lakes: Day-to-day weather is more important on the lakes than snowmelt. These lakes have warmed up very late. Frequently we see excellent hatches in mid–late May. We are still in “leech and streamer mode” due to the cold spring. This late start should keep fishing good well through June, possibly through July in the case of Burns Lake. Hot/bright weather thereafter the determining factor on when things get slow.
Paradise Valley Spring Creeks: Fishing is always best on the creeks from early March through April, then again from about June 20 through July 20. Unfortunately, radically-increasing pressure on the creeks now means that many prime dates in June-July 2023 are now booked solid. We’re basically done guiding on these creeks except in March-April because of this.
Other Waters: The Gallatin River will likely drop out of runoff around June 25 and possibly get too warm downstream of Gallatin Gateway by late July. Mountain small streams in Montana will generally fish best from July 15 through August, but may hang on into early September if summer is not too hot and dry. Public lakes in Montana will be best in June except for carp, which rise to hoppers on some lakes in late July and August.

Yellowstone Park Fisheries

Yellowstone River: The Lake-Falls stretch opens July 1! This is a change from longstanding tradition. For decades this water opened July 15. We wish the early July closure remained in place to let the lake-run cutthroat finish the spawn in peace. That said, early July will almost certainly offer the best fishing here since the mid-1990s, since cutthroat numbers are increasing in general and almost none of them will have migrated back to the lake on the opener, in contrast to the previous opener which saw many fish already moving back to their winter haunts in Yellowstoen Lake. The fishing will remain good through July. The Grand Canyon from the Falls to the Lamar confluence will become fishable around June 20. The most consistent fishing (particularly if you prefer dry flies) will occur in July and early August, though the fishing should remain good until mid-October. The Black Canyon stretch from the Lamar to Gardiner will track similarly to the stretch downstream of Gardiner noted in the previous section.
Gardner River: The lower Gardner downstream of Boiling River will be fishable on a day-to-day basis from the opening of the park season, joined by the stretch from Sheepeater Canyon to Boiling River around June 20. Consistent fishing will begin by June 25 and continue in both stretches through July and above Boiling River until early October. Below Boiling River will be too warm and weedy at the end of July and on through mid-September. The headwaters above Osprey Falls will come in around July 5–10 and remain good until mid-August.
Lamar River & Tributaries: Runoff will end sometime in the first ten days of July depending on the water involved and the weather. The best fishing will occur in July and early August. The water will be low and slow and the fish heavily-pressured and spooky thereafter.
Firehole River: The Firehole will not experience an appreciable runoff and will fish best between the park opener and June 20. The first hot/dry spell after June 20 will shut down fishing until after Labor Day. While conditions have improved in the Firehole drainage over the past few weeks, they’re still not ideal. In fact, snowpack is lower in this basin than anywhere else in the area.
Gibbon River: The Gibbon upstream of Norris Geyser Basin will be fishable sometime between June 5 and June 10 and will be best before late July. Areas downstream of Norris Geyser Basin are unlikely to experience an appreciable runoff and will be best between the season opener and June 25. After June 25, the first hot spell will shut the fishing off until September 1. We will be guiding here at least two days in the upcoming week.
Upper Madison River: Generally similar to the Firehole but will hang on for a few days after the first hot spell.
Lakes in YNP: Ice-out has now happened on all lakes except perhaps Lewis and other high-elevation lakes in the southern part of the park (4+ hours from here). Travel to the lakes before mid-June will be a wet, sloppy mess due to mud and snowmelt. All will fish best through June, then trail off through July.
Creeks in YNP: Meadow-type streams will become fishable between June 10 and the end of June, with those draining lakes becoming fishable towards the earlier end and those draining mountains falling into shape later. All will be best for the first month after they come in. Rough, mountain creeks will come into shape around the beginning of July and be best for a month to six weeks starting about a week after they fall into shape.

Snowpack & Runoff Update and Summer Streamflow and Fishing Forecast

Posted on May 19th, 2022 in Season Forecasts, Weather & Water Conditions

Introduction, Current Conditions, and Long-Range Outlooks

On the heels of low snowpack in 2020-2021 followed by a record warm, dry summer that came early, we are currently in severe to extreme drought throughout the YCFF operations area. About half our operations area is in each category, which is an improvement from a month ago when 3/4 of our operations were in extreme drought. The core of winter brought no relief from this drought. As of March 31, snowpack sat at just over 70% of normal in most areas and we anticipated exceptionally low snowpack and thus extreme to record low streamflows. Following from this, we anticipated widespread stream closures and bad fishing conditions in late summer.

Thankfully, we enjoyed the coldest April since 1997. May has been more of a mixed bag, with several-day runs in the 70s followed by several-day runs in the 40s or 50s. The next three days are forecast to be cold and wet, with significant mountain snowfall, but then it’ll rise back into the 60s. The spring runoff has begun on all rivers, having started around May 15th-16th, about a week late. Overall, we saw drastic improvements in our water situation through early spring, with snowpack rising sharply and soil moisture at low elevations improving due to substantial rainfall. This has significantly improved our outlooks for the core summer season from our early April outlook, when we basically thought the sky was falling and expected absolutely terrible water conditions this year.

Snowpack as of May 19, with our approximate operations area circled in red.

As of right now, snowpack within our operations area is at 94% to 120% of normal. This is a huge increase from the end of March doldrums, when things were at 68% to 80% of normal. The most important basins–the Yellowstone River Basin in WY and Yellowstone Park and the Yellowstone River Basin in Montana–are at 106% and 102% of average, respectively.

These near-normal and above-normal numbers are rather misleading because they reflect the cold spring we’ve had rather than actual precipitation. Peak snow depths at most snow sensors (click around at this link) were far below normal. This snow just reached peak depth late and hasn’t melted as quickly as usual. Because of the ongoing drought, much of the snowmelt will just go straight into the ground to replenish soil moisture, rather than making it into streams. As such, we still anticipate below-normal streamflows during the core June–September season. They just won’t be as drastically low as we expected six weeks ago.

Current NOAA outlooks through the remainder of May suggest near-normal temperatures and precipitation, which is fine. We would love to have it remain cold and wet, but normal is far better than the hot and dry we had last year, which led to runoff finishing by early June. There is now no chance of that happening this year.

Long-range outlooks (the monthly outlook for June and the seasonal outlook for June–August) do not look so friendly. We are forecast to see above-normal temperatures and below-normal precip. Boo.

Summary of Anticipated Water & Fishing Conditions

The spring runoff began a few days ago, about a week late. While the runoff began with exceptionally sharp rises in flows (the Lamar River jumped from about 600 cubic feet per second flow to about 3600 in three days, the Yellowstone from 2500 to 7000), these were related more to abundant remaining low-elevation snowpack than to extreme heat. Cold to seasonal weather for the next week or two leads us to anticipate a normal progress of the spring melt from here on out.
After the heavy melt hits and then recedes, the best fishing is likely to occur between about June 25 and early August. Thereafter, cloudy days and rougher water will be best at least until the weather deteriorates in September. We do not anticipate widespread 2:00PM drought/heat closures on our prime waters barring extreme summer heat. This is a profound improvement.
Below-normal snowpack and resulting summer streamflows are now certain. As long as we do not suffer the month-long heat dome that occurred last year between mid-June and mid-July, flows will be somewhat below normal rather than record low. Many visitors will not notice much difference from previous trips to the region.
We anticipate a light snowmelt but a near-normal end to the snowmelt cycle, with the melt generally ending between June 20 and July 4 depending on the water in question. This discrepancy reflects the fact we are in drought and have a somewhat low snowpack, but that this snow is melting late.
July is almost certain to offer the year’s most-consistent water conditions when the area is taken as a whole. Conditions will be good in late June in many areas and into early August on some of the colder, rougher waters.
The fish are likely to be spooky and difficult from sometime in early August through mid-September in many areas. In August and September, steeper, faster, deeper water will fish much better than the flat, shallow stuff.
2:00PM fishing closures will occur in late July and August on a few low-elevation waters, but will be rare if we have normal or even somewhat hot weather in summer. These closures are unlikely to impact the “core” fisheries (YNP, upper Madison, Stillwater River, Yellowstone River above Livingston) that are most popular at this time. That said, late afternoon and early evening fishing is likely to be poor from late July through August. More widespread 2:00 closures are possible if we have extended record heat in June and July as we did in 2021.
Complete 24hr closures are extremely unlikely even if we have a brutal heatwave like we had in 2021. This is another huge improvement and relief. A month ago we thought there was a 1 in 3 chance of such closures.
Due to tinderbox conditions throughout most of the West, fires and smoke from both local and distant fires are likely to be very bad this year beginning in late July.
Due to the winding-down of COVID (we hope) prompting high tourism, as well as the rapidly increasing population in the region, fishing pressure will be intense from the end of runoff through early October, assuming fires and stream closures allow for it. The quality of the fishing will not play any role in how many people are on the water. We are already seeing much more fishing pressure than used to be typical, including record-high bookings for all of spring.

Detailed Fishing Conditions by Water

Montana Fisheries

Yellowstone River: Runoff will end between June 20 and the end of June, with June 25 most likely. The Salmonfly hatch will occur for about a week immediately after runoff recedes. It is possible the earliest days of the hatch will see conditions too high and muddy to fish. The fishing will be best on slower, shallower sections of river upstream from Livingston as well as all water east of Livingston prior to early August. Faster, deeper water upstream from Livingston should produce acceptably well all summer unless we see exceptional heat as we did last year, though midafternoon onward will probably be slow in August except on cloudy days. 2:00 fishing closures will depend on weather but are not likely without record heat.
Madison River: The Lower Madison will not experience any appreciable runoff and will be best prior to June 25. After June 25 it will generally run too warm after noon depending on day-to-day weather. The Upper Madison (really outside my ops area) will likewise probably not experience much of a runoff. It will be best from mid-June through late July. 2:00 closures are certain on the Lower Madison beginning no later than early July. They are very unlikely on the upper Madison.
Boulder River: Runoff will end late due to intense recent snow. June 20 to July 4 is a reasonable window for the end of the melt, with June 25 most likely. The river will get too low to float by July 25, and perhaps sooner. High water temps and low flows will almost certainly be a problem even for wade-fishing in August due to this small river’s intense irrigation drawdowns. The Boulder seldom sees any fishing restrictions due to water levels or temperature, but in all honesty I expect areas downstream of Natural Bridge should be closed 24 hours a day in August, due as much to irrigation drawdowns as water temps.
Stillwater River: Runoff will end between June 20 and July 4, with June 25 to July 1 most likely. Upper sections will be too low to float around July 20-25. Lower portions downstream of the Rosebud confluence will remain high enough to float until roughly September 1. Late summer rains will be required for float-fishing to remain an option after that. The best fishing will occur in July and early August, but should be decent so long as flows remain high enough to allow floating. This river will offer our best “action/numbers/dry flies” fishing this year.
Missouri River: No appreciable runoff will occur. The carp/walleye/pike water upstream from Canyon Ferry Reservoir will as always fish best from late July through early September. The trout water downstream of Canyon Ferry (including “Land of Giants”) will fish best from now through June. Both the trout water and the “other” water are less likely to have closures than any other water we fish.
Private Lakes: Day-to-day weather is more important on the lakes than snowmelt. These lakes have warmed up very late. Frequently we see excellent hatches in mid–late May. We are still in “leech and streamer mode” due to the cold spring. This late start should keep fishing good well into June, possibly into July in the case of Burns Lake. Hot/bright weather thereafter the determining factor on when things get slow.
Paradise Valley Spring Creeks: Fishing is always best on the creeks from early March through April, then again from about June 20 through July 20. Unfortunately, radically-increasing pressure on the creeks now means that many prime dates in June-July 2023 are now booked solid. We’re basically done guiding on these creeks except in March-April because of this.
Other Waters: The Gallatin River will likely drop out of runoff around June 20-25 and possibly get too warm downstream of Gallatin Gateway by late July. The Jefferson River will drop from runoff by June 20 and probably be too warm the instant it does. We will not be offering floats on this river anymore, odds are. The fish populations are too low and too stressed by heat in the lower stretches of river close enough to Livingston. Mountain small streams in Montana will generally fish best from July 10 or so through about August 20, but may hang on into early September if summer is not too hot and dry. Public lakes in Montana will be best in May and June except for carp, which rise to hoppers on some lakes in late July and August.

Yellowstone Park Fisheries

Yellowstone River: The Lake-Falls stretch opens July 1! This is a change from longstanding tradition. For decades this water opened July 15. We wish the early July closure remained in place to let the lake-run cutthroat finish the spawn in peace. That said, early July will almost certainly offer the best fishing here since the mid-1990s, since cutthroat numbers are increasing in general and almost none of them will have migrated back to the lake on the opener, in contrast to the previous opener which saw many fish already moving back to their winter haunts in Yellowstoen Lake. The fishing will remain good through July. The Grand Canyon from the Falls to the Lamar confluence will become fishable around June 10, though there’s a slim possibility it will be marginally fishable opening weekend if the weather is cold. Most of June will see high and murky but fishable water. The most consistent fishing (particularly if you prefer dry flies) will occur in July and early August, though the fishing should remain good until mid-October. The Black Canyon stretch from the Lamar to Gardiner will track similarly to the stretch downstream of Gardiner noted in the previous section.
Gardner River: The lower Gardner downstream of Boiling River will be fishable on a day-to-day basis from the opening of the park season, joined by the stretch from Sheepeater Canyon to Boiling River around June 15. Consistent fishing will begin by June 20 and continue in both stretches through about July 20 and above Boiling River until early October. Below Boiling River will be too warm and weedy at the end of July and on through mid-September. The headwaters above Osprey Falls will come in around July 1 and remain good until at least early August.
Lamar River & Tributaries: Runoff will end sometime in the first week of July depending on the water involved and the weather. The best fishing will occur in July and early August. The water will be low and slow and the fish heavily-pressured and spooky thereafter.
Firehole River: The Firehole will not experience an appreciable runoff and will fish best between the park opener and June 15. The first hot/dry spell after June 15 will shut down fishing until after Labor Day. While conditions have improved in the Firehole drainage over the past few weeks, they’re still not ideal. In fact, snowpack is lower in this basin than anywhere else in the area. We did not guide on the Firehole in 2021 and almost certainly will not in 2022, either. If current climate models continue, the Firehole will cease to be a relevant fishery downstream of Old Faithful by 2030 due to repeated fish kills associated with high water temperatures.
Gibbon River: The Gibbon upstream of Norris Geyser Basin will be fishable sometime between June 5 and June 10 and will be best before late July. Areas downstream of Norris Geyser Basin are unlikely to experience an appreciable runoff and will be best between the season opener and June 20. After June 20, the first hot spell will shut the fishing off until September 1.
Upper Madison River: Generally similar to the Firehole but will hang on for a few days after the first hot spell.
Lakes in YNP: Ice-out will depend on day-to-day weather but should occur before or right around Opening Day. Travel to the lakes before mid-June might be a wet, sloppy mess due to mud and snowmelt, though all except high-elevation lakes and those in snowy areas (Lewis Lake, I’m looking at you) should be snow-free by the opener. All will fish best from ice-out (or Opening Day, whichever comes second) through June, then trail off through early July.
Creeks in YNP: Meadow-type streams will become fishable between June 10 and the end of June, with those draining lakes becoming fishable towards the earlier end and those draining mountains falling into shape later. All will be best for the first month after they come in. Rough, mountain creeks will come into shape around the beginning of July and be best for a month to six weeks starting about a week after they fall into shape.

Guide Service Availability

As of this writing, I still have lots of availability in June, August, and September. July is much tighter. I still have a few open days at the beginning of the month for Salmonfly floats or hike & wade trips and late in the month. I am fully-booked from July 5–22 and July 27–30. Contractor guide availability for the days I’m fully booked will also be rather thin during this period.

The following photo is from a private lake trip to Sitz Ranch on May 17. Fishing was so-so, but all fish were 16–21 inches. Photo courtesy Steve Smith. These guys will start eating dry flies in a few days.

Snowpack, Streamflow, and Summer Fishing Forecast – April 30 2022 Update

Posted on April 30th, 2022 in Season Forecasts, Weather & Water Conditions

Introduction, Current Conditions, and Long-Range Outlooks

Here in Yellowstone Country, winter snowpack and how this snowpack melts from late April through June play the most important roles in summer water supply for both fish and agriculture from early June through mid-September. June through mid-September temperatures and rainfall play a secondary role. Only after mid-September does day-to-day weather play the largest role in overall water levels and water quality. Winter weather is thus very helpful in planning summer fishing trips to the region.

On the heels of low snowpack in 2020-2021 followed by a record warm, dry summer that came early, we are currently in severe to extreme drought throughout the YCFF operations area. Most areas are in extreme drought, the second-worst category overall. Montana is in worse shape as far as drought than any other regions in the West except for Oregon east of the Cascade Range and southern Nevada. Unfortunately, we had a very dry winter. Thankfully, substantial rain and snowfall occurred through most of April, and the weather has been substantially colder than normal. This has significantly improved our outlooks for the core summer season from our early April outlook, when we basically thought the sky was falling and expected absolutely terrible water conditions this year.

We still don’t expect a high or even normal water year, but instead of the record-low water we were facing a month ago, we now generally anticipate somewhat low flows. We’ll take it, assuming that’s what we get.

YCFF operations area is circled in red.

As of right now, snowpack within our operations area is at 85% to 99% of normal. This is a huge increase from the end of March, when things were at 68% to 80% of normal. The most important basins–the Yellowstone River Basin in WY and Yellowstone Park and the Yellowstone River Basin in Montana–are at 95% and 96% of average, respectively. While on paper these numbers suggest near-normal water levels, they don’t take the drought into consideration. A lot of our snow will disappear straight into the ground during the spring melt, rather than actually contributing to streamflow.

8-14 NOAA outlook through mid-May 2022

We have enjoyed a cold and wet April. Current NOAA outlooks generally predict below-normal temps and above-normal precip through about the middle of May. This is great news. We now anticipate a late start to the spring snowmelt (rivers have only recently risen from winter-low flows, three weeks late). The longer the snow stays in the mountains, the longer water stays in the rivers in mid-late summer.

Long-range outlooks through May are also friendly: an equal chance of above/below-normal weather in the southern part of our operations area (though we are closer to the “cold” side of this map), a greater chance of below-normal temps in the northern part of our ops area, and increased chances of above-normal precip throughout our ops area.

May 2022 NOAA outlooks

If the 8-14 and monthly outlooks are correct, we will have a very late start to the spring melt. Very good news for summer weather and water conditions. Worse news is our long-range outlooks for summer. This graphic for the June-August period is not what we want to see. If these forecast hot and dry conditions dominate through summer, it will undo a lot of the good we’ve had this April and have forecast in May.

Summary of Anticipated Water & Fishing Conditions

In a general sense, here’s what we expect for June through mid-September streamflow and fishing conditions. This is based on current conditions and the longer-range outlooks. Think of the following as something like a weather forecast from a week out: it’s too early for specifics, but the general outline is probably accurate. We anticipate low streamflow conditions for the June-September core season. Water temperatures may also be warm, but this depends on summer weather.

Here’s what this means for anticipated water and fishing conditions. In general, the following assumes a somewhat accurate weather outlook for the next couple weeks and summer weather that tracks roughly with the NOAA long-range outlooks.

The fishing and guiding seasons began in mid-March. Early fishing was good. Of late it has been poor, since we have still had winter water conditions when we should have had warmer, higher water, more insect hatches, and good streamer fishing.
Warmer spring weather is on the horizon, but not the kind of heat that prompts spring runoff to begin. We therefore expect spring runoff to occur late on all waters. On the Yellowstone River, it is unlikely to begin in earnest for at least another ten days, and possibly as much as three weeks. There may also be “runoff breaks” when spells of cold weather interrupt spells in the 60s-70s. At the moment we do not expect 80 degree temps for the foreseeable future, which is wonderful.
After the heavy melt hits and then recedes, the best fishing is likely to occur between about June 25 and early August. Thereafter, cloudy days and rougher water will be best at least until the weather deteriorates in September. We do not anticipate widespread 2:00PM drought/heat closures on our prime waters barring extreme summer heat. This is a profound improvement. We were almost certain of such closures a month ago.
Below-normal snowpack and resulting summer streamflows are now certain. How low we go depends on how much moisture we get through mid-May and how the snow melts from now through mid-June. Record-low water in late summer is very unlikely and will only occur if we have another awful heat dome in June-July as we did last year.
We anticipate a light snowmelt but a near-normal end to the snowmelt cycle, with the melt generally ending between June 20 and July 4 depending on the water in question. This discrepancy reflects the fact we are in drought and have a somewhat low snowpack, but that this snow is melting late.
July is almost certain to offer the year’s most-consistent water conditions when the area is taken as a whole. Conditions will be good in late June in many areas and into early August on some of the colder, rougher waters.
The fish are likely to be spooky and difficult from sometime in early August through mid-September in many areas. In August and September, steeper, faster, deeper water will fish much better than the flat, shallow stuff.
2:00PM fishing closures will occur in late July and August on a few low-elevation waters, but will be rare if we have normal weather in summer. These closures are unlikely to impact the “core” fisheries (YNP, upper Madison, Stillwater River, Yellowstone River above Livingston) that are most popular at this time. That said, late afternoon and early evening fishing is likely to be poor from late July through August. More widespread 2:00 closures are possible if we have an early extreme warmup in late May-June and/or extended record heat in June and July as we did in 2021.
Complete 24hr closures are extremely unlikely even if we have a brutal heatwave like we had in 2021. This is another huge improvement and relief. A month ago we thought there was a 1 in 3 chance of such closures.
Due to tinderbox conditions throughout most of the West, fires and smoke from both local and distant fires are likely to be very bad this year beginning in late July.
Due to the winding-down of COVID (we hope) prompting high tourism, as well as the rapidly increasing population in the region, fishing pressure will be intense from the end of runoff through early October, assuming fires and stream closures allow for it. The quality of the fishing will not play any role in how many people are on the water. We are already seeing much more fishing pressure than used to be typical, including record-high bookings for March and April.

Detailed Fishing Conditions by Water

There have been substantial changes to the following forecasts due to the abundant snow and cold weather we’ve enjoyed in April. In particular, we no longer expect 2:00PM closures in late summer unless we have an extreme heat wave save on rivers that almost always have them, such as the lower Madison River.

Runoff is starting at a normal or late date. Our next update in mid-May will bring the following date ranges into much sharper focus.

Montana Fisheries

Yellowstone River: Runoff will end between June 20 and the end of June, with June 25 most likely. The Salmonfly hatch will occur for about a week immediately after runoff recedes. It is possible the earliest days of the hatch will see conditions too high and muddy to fish. The fishing will be best on slower, shallower sections of river upstream from Livingston as well as all water east of Livingston prior to early August. Faster, deeper water upstream from Livingston should produce acceptably well all summer unless we see exceptional heat as we did last year, though midafternoon onward will probably be slow in August except on cloudy days. 2:00 fishing closures will depend on weather. Absent extended extreme heat, such closures are unlikely upstream from Livingston.
Madison River: The Lower Madison will not experience any appreciable runoff and will be best prior to June 20. After June 20 it will generally run too warm after noon depending on day-to-day weather. The Upper Madison (really outside my ops area) will likewise probably not experience much of a runoff. It will be best from mid-June through late July. 2:00 closures are certain on the Lower Madison beginning no later than early July and possible but much less likely on the upper Madison beginning in late July.
Boulder River: Runoff will end late due to intense recent snow. June 20 to July 4 is a reasonable window for the end of the melt, with June 25 most likely. The river will get too low to float by July 25, and perhaps sooner. High water temps and low flows will almost certainly be a problem even for wade-fishing in August due to this small river’s intense irrigation drawdowns. The Boulder seldom sees any fishing restrictions due to water levels or temperature, but in all honesty I expect areas downstream of Natural Bridge should be closed 24 hours a day in August, due as much to irrigation drawdowns as water temps.
Stillwater River: Runoff will end between June 20 and July 4, with June 25 to July 1 most likely. Upper sections will be too low to float around July 15-25. Lower portions downstream of the Rosebud confluence will be high enough to float through sometime between August 20 and September 10. Late summer rains will be required for float-fishing to remain an option after that. The best fishing will occur in July and early August. 2:00 closures are possible in late July and August only if we see extreme heat in June and early July. Intense late season snow over the past few weeks will REALLY help the Stillwater this season and I encourage visitors coming in late July and August to fish it.
Missouri River: No appreciable runoff will occur. The carp/walleye/pike water upstream from Canyon Ferry Reservoir will as always fish best from late July through early September. Head-hunting carp here will be our preferred option for early August trips if we have a hot/dry summer. The trout water downstream of Canyon Ferry (including “Land of Giants”) will fish best from now through June. Both the trout water and the “other” water are less likely to have closures than any other water we fish.
Private Lakes: Day-to-day weather is more important on the lakes than snowmelt. These lakes should fish well from early April through at least mid-June, with hot/bright weather thereafter the determining factor on when things get slow.
Paradise Valley Spring Creeks: Fishing is always best on the creeks from early March through April, then again from about June 20 through July 20. Unfortunately, radically-increasing pressure on the creeks now means that many prime dates in June-July 2023 are now booked solid. We’re basically done guiding on these creeks except in March-April because of this.
Other Waters: The Gallatin River will likely drop out of runoff around June 20-25 and possibly get too warm by late July. The Jefferson River will drop from runoff by June 15-20 and probably be too warm the instant it does. We will not be offering floats on this river anymore, odds are. The fish populations are too low and too stressed by heat in the lower stretches of river close enough to Livingston. Mountain small streams in Montana will generally fish best from July 10 or so through about August 20, but may hang on into early September if summer is not too hot and dry. Public lakes in Montana will be best in May and June except for carp, which rise to hoppers on some lakes in late July and August.

Yellowstone Park Fisheries

Yellowstone River: The Lake-Falls stretch always opens July 15. It will be best over the remainder of July thereafter. The Grand Canyon from the Falls to the Lamar confluence may not experience an unfishably-high runoff, though it probably will for ten days or so in early June. Given the likelihood of a late runoff and a forecast for below-normal temps until mid-May, it is possible runoff will not yet be fully underway during the first few days of the season. Can you say Mother’s Day Caddis? Conditions suitable for nymph and streamer fishing may be present throughout the first three weeks of the season, though more likely the river will begin coming into shape between June 10 and June 20. More consistent conditions will begin after that. While Salmonflies may pop anytime after June 20 sporadically, they will be heaviest in the first ten days of July. Good conditions should continue throughout the summer unless we experience an extreme heat wave that prompts the park to close all flowing waters at 2:00. The Black Canyon generally tracks similarly to the Yellowstone downstream in Montana, though the first half of July should still see Salmonflies at least in the upstream areas between the Lamar River and Hellroaring Creek confluences.
Gardner River: The lower Gardner downstream of Boiling River will be fishable on a day-to-day basis from the opening of the park season, joined by the stretch from Sheepeater Canyon to Boiling River around June 10-15. Consistent fishing will begin by June 20 and continue in both stretches through about July 20 and above Boiling River until early October. Below Boiling River will be too warm and weedy at the end of July and on through mid-September. The headwaters above Osprey Falls will come in between June 20 and July 4 depending on weather and remain good until at least early August.
Lamar River & Tributaries: Runoff will end between June 20 and July 4 depending on the water involved and the weather. The best fishing will occur in July and perhaps very early August. The water will be low and slow and the fish heavily-pressured and spooky thereafter.
Firehole River: The Firehole will not experience an appreciable runoff and will fish best between the park opener and June 15. The first hot/dry spell after June 15 will shut down fishing until after Labor Day. While conditions have improved in the Firehole drainage over the past few weeks, they’re still not ideal. In fact, snowpack is lower in this basin than anywhere else in the area. We did not guide on the Firehole in 2021 and almost certainly will not in 2022, either. If current climate models continue, the Firehole will cease to be a relevant fishery downstream of Old Faithful by 2030 due to repeated fish kills associated with high water temperatures.
Gibbon River: The Gibbon upstream of Norris Geyser Basin will be fishable sometime between the park opener and June 10 and will be best before mid-July. Areas downstream of Norris Geyser Basin are unlikely to experience an appreciable runoff and will be best between the season opener and June 20. After June 20, the first hot spell will shut the fishing off until September 1.
Upper Madison River: Generally similar to the Firehole but will hang on for a few days after the first hot spell.
Lakes in YNP: Ice-out will depend on day-to-day weather but should occur before or right around Opening Day. Travel to the lakes before mid-June might be a wet, sloppy mess due to mud and snowmelt, though all except high-elevation lakes and those in snowy areas (Lewis Lake, I’m looking at you) should be snow-free by the opener. All will fish best from ice-out (or Opening Day, whichever comes second) through June, then trail off through early July.
Creeks in YNP: Meadow-type streams will become fishable between June 10 and the end of June, with those draining lakes becoming fishable towards the earlier end and those draining mountains falling into shape later. All will be best for the first month after they come in. Rough, mountain creeks will come into shape around the beginning of July and be best for a month to six weeks starting about a week after they fall into shape.

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