Posted on April 22nd, 2022 in Season Forecasts, Weather & Water Conditions
Introduction, Current Conditions, and Long-Range Outlooks
Here in Yellowstone Country, winter snowpack and how this snowpack melts from late April through June play the most important roles in summer water supply for both fish and agriculture from early June through mid-September. June through mid-September temperatures and rainfall play a secondary role. Only after mid-September does day-to-day weather play the largest role in overall water levels and water quality. Winter weather is thus very helpful in planning summer fishing trips to the region.
On the heels of low snowpack in 2020-2021 followed by a record warm, dry summer that came early, we are currently in severe to extreme drought throughout the YCFF operations area. Most areas are in extreme drought, the second-worst category overall. Montana is in worse shape as far as drought than any other regions in the West except for Oregon east of the Cascade Range and southern Nevada. Unfortunately, we had a very dry winter. April has thus far been very cold and at least somewhat wet, though the heaviest snowfall has occurred east of our core operations area. Still, any help is better than none. Snowpack did increase since our last update at the end of March, the first bright spot we’ve had since early January.
As of right now, areas within our operations area are at 77% to 87% of normal. This is a huge increase from our last update, when things were at 68% to 80% of normal. The most important basins–the Yellowstone River Basin in WY and Yellowstone Park and the Yellowstone River Basin in Montana–are at 87% and 84%, respectively. While on paper these numbers don’t look too bad, they’re not great when the drought is taken into consideration. A lot of our snow will disappear straight into the ground during the spring melt, rather than actually contributing to streamflow.
We have enjoyed a cold and wet April, and current NOAA outlooks predict this will continue into early May. This is great news. At the very least, the spring melt this year should be normal, and if cold weather can continue until about May 10, runoff will be late. The longer the snow stays in the mountains, the longer water stays in the rivers in mid-late summer.
Long-range outlooks for May taken as a whole and the summer period are not so friendly. Warmer-than-normal and drier-than-normal conditions are predicted. We really don’t want this prediction to come true.
Summary of Anticipated Water & Fishing Conditions
In a general sense, here’s what we expect for June through mid-September streamflow and fishing conditions. This is based on current conditions and the longer-range outlooks. Think of the following as something like a weather forecast from a week out: it’s too early for specifics, but the general outline is probably accurate. We anticipate low and warm to extremely low and warm stream conditions for the June-September core season.
Here’s what this means for anticipated water and fishing conditions.
- The fishing and guiding seasons began in mid-March and fishing has been good. The fishing is likely to remain consistent until at least May 5, and possibly mid-May. After the heavy melt hits and then recedes, the best fishing is likely to occur between mid-June and mid-July.
- Below-normal snowpack and resulting summer streamflows are now certain. How low we go depends on how much moisture we get through mid-May and how the snow melts from late April onward. Record-low water in late summer is possible, but less likely than it was a few weeks ago.
- We anticipate a light snowmelt and an early end to the snowmelt cycle. The end point will depend on when the snow starts melting in earnest.
- Mid-June through mid-July will offer much better conditions than August and early September on all waters, including many small streams and areas within Yellowstone Park that are typically too high and muddy to fish before early July. Provided current outlooks through the first week of May are accurate, July fishing should be generally “safe.”
- The fish are likely to be spooky and difficult from sometime in the latter half of July through mid-September more often than not, with steeper, faster, deeper water holding on longer.
- 2:00PM fishing closures will be commonacross our operations area between sometime in the last ten days of July and late August. Closures outside of these timeframes are possible if we have an early extreme warmup in May-June as we did in 2021.
- Complete fishing closures are possible on many waters in August if we have a repeat of last summer’s record heat and drought. This could include total fishing closures in Yellowstone Park. These are much less likely in Montana.
- Very limited legal or at least ethical fishing opportunities are possible in August if we have a hot/dry summer.
- The fishing opportunities will increase substantially with the first spell of cooler weather, usually in the last week or so of August, but the fishing will remain very difficult most days until the weather gets cold and gray sometime in the latter half of September.
- Due to tinderbox conditions throughout most of the West, fires and smoke from both local and distant fires are likely to be very bad this year beginning in mid-July.
- Due to anticipated very poor conditions in August, we now discourage fishing-specific travel to the area between August 1 and at least August 20. We are still accepting bookings for this period, but only if clients are willing to book “guide’s choice” trips in terms of duration (full-day vs half-day, the latter being much more likely if we’re targeting trout), trip type (walk or float), and target species. In regards to target species, high stress on trout and widespread closures on trout waters may mean that carp will be our preferred target species in August, particularly on full-day trips.
- Due to the winding-down of COVID (we hope) prompting high tourism, as well as the rapidly increasing population in the region, fishing pressure will be intense from the end of runoff through early October, assuming fires and stream closures allow for it. The quality of the fishing will not play any role in how many people are on the water. We are already seeing much more fishing pressure than used to be typical, including record-high bookings for March and April.
Detailed Fishing Conditions by Water
The following information is coming into sharper focus now, since most of the snow that will accumulate has accumulated. The real X factors remaining are when the spring melt starts in earnest (early–>late April, normal–>first ten days of May, late–>anytime thereafter), how much June rain we receive, and how soon the first summer heat wave hits. In 2021 we were in much better shape for snowpack than we are this year prior to the end of April, but we had an early melt, an exceptionally dry June, and broiling-hot weather from mid-June through mid-July. These three factors crushed us last year.
If we have a normal or late start to the melt, a normal to wet June, and a normal to cool June and early July, we will be in good shape to avoid widespread closures. Right now, we’re heading the direction we want to head in. Hopefully this will continue. On the other hand, if we have a similar start to summer as we did last year, complete fishing closures in the vast majority of our operations area are very likely in late summer.
- Yellowstone River: Runoff will end between June 10 and June 20, with June 15 most likely. The fishing will be best for the month following. One of my long-time clients booked for June 20-21 and I suspect he hit his dates perfectly. Hot, bright days from about July 20-25 through early September will be very difficult, particularly in shallow, gentle sections of river. 2:00PM fishing closures are possible on the entire Yellowstone River from YNP to Laurel from sometime in late July or early August until sometime in late August. They are probable east of Livingston. Complete fishing closures are possible in the first three weeks of August.
- Madison River: The Lower Madison will not experience any appreciable runoff and will be best prior to June 10. After June 20 it will generally run too warm after noon depending on day-to-day weather. The Upper Madison (really outside my ops area) will likewise probably not experience much of a runoff. It will be best from mid-June through late July. 2:00 closures are certain on the Lower Madison beginning no later than early July and possible but much less likely on the upper Madison beginning in late July.
- Boulder River: Runoff will end between June 10 and June 20, with June 10-15 most likely. The river will get too low to float by July 10-15, and perhaps sooner. High water temps and low flows will almost certainly be a problem even for wade-fishing in August due to this small river’s intense irrigation drawdowns. The Boulder seldom sees any fishing restrictions due to water levels or temperature, but in all honesty I expect areas downstream of Natural Bridge should be closed 24 hours a day in August this year, due as much to irrigation drawdowns as water temps.
- Stillwater River: Runoff will end between June 15 and June 25, with June 20 most likely. Upper sections will be too low to float around July 10-15. Lower portions downstream of the Rosebud confluence will be high enough to float through sometime in August, probably the 20th. The best fishing will occur in July. 2:00 closures are possible in late July and August.
- Missouri River: No appreciable runoff will occur. The carp/walleye/pike water upstream from Canyon Ferry Reservoir will as always fish best from late July through early September. Head-hunting carp here will be our preferred option for early August trips if we have a hot/dry summer. The trout water downstream of Canyon Ferry (including “Land of Giants”) will fish best from now through June. Both the trout water and the “other” water are less likely to have closures than any other water we fish.
- Private Lakes: Day-to-day weather is more important on the lakes than snowmelt. These lakes should fish well from early April through at least mid-June, with hot/bright weather thereafter the determining factor on when things get slow.
- Paradise Valley Spring Creeks: Fishing is always best on the creeks from early March through April, then again from about June 20 through July 20. Unfortunately, radically-increasing pressure on the creeks now means that many prime dates in June-July 2023 are now booked solid. We’re basically done guiding on these creeks except in March-April because of this.
- Other Waters: The Gallatin River will likely drop out of runoff in mid-June and possibly get too warm by late July. The Jefferson River will drop from runoff by June 10-15 and probably be too warm the instant it does. Immense fish kills occurred on this river in 2021 and this year will be no better. Many portions may honestly never recover, given the likely future flows and water temps current climate models predict. Montana small streams will generally fish best in July and perhaps early August if they don’t drop TOO fast. Public lakes in Montana will be best in May and early June except for carp, which rise to hoppers on some lakes in late July and August.
Yellowstone Park Fisheries
- Yellowstone River: The Lake-Falls stretch always opens July 15. It will be best for the week thereafter. The Grand Canyon from the Falls to the Lamar confluence will not experience an unfishably-high runoff. It should fish well with nymphs and streamers as soon as it opens on the Saturday of Memorial Day Weekend, though it won’t necessarily be “pretty.” 2:00 closures are likely in August, though only because YNP tends to use a hammer as its only tool in fisheries management–in reality, this section of the Yellowstone stays under 70 degrees and is deep enough to offer good cover even in awful drought years. The Grand Canyon will probably offer the best fishing of any stretch of the Yellowstone this year averaged out over the whole season, including sections both inside and outside the park. The Black Canyon section downstream of the Lamar confluence tracks similarly to the Yellowstone River outside the park.
- Gardner River: The Gardner will be fishable on a day-to-day basis from the park opener through mid-June, then be good through early July throughout and after early July only upstream from Boiling River. Downstream of Boiling River will be too warm until mid-September. Note that the Gardner saw overwhelming pressure in 2021 and generally fished poorly because of it except in June and October.
- Lamar River & Tributaries: Runoff will end around June 20 on Slough Creek and between June 20 and July 1 elsewhere. The best fishing will be for the month thereafter. Late August and early September will see low water and spooky fish, particularly on Slough Creek. Roadside areas saw overwhelming pressure in 2021 and 2022 might well be worse.
- Firehole River: The Firehole will not experience an appreciable runoff and will fish best between the park opener and June 10. The first hot/dry spell between June 5 and June 20 will shut down fishing until after Labor Day. Overall, this will be a very grim season for the Firehole. We did not guide on the Firehole in 2021 and almost certainly will not in 2022, either. If current climate models continue, the Firehole will cease to be a relevant fishery downstream of Old Faithful by 2030 due to repeated fish kills associated with high water temperatures.
- Gibbon River: The Gibbon upstream of Norris Geyser Basin will be fishable sometime between the park opener and June 5 and will be best before mid-July. Areas downstream of Norris Geyser Basin are unlikely to experience an appreciable runoff and will be best between the season opener and June 10. After June 10, the first hot spell will shut the fishing off until September 1. This is going to be a bad year for the lower Gibbon.
- Upper Madison River: Generally similar to the Firehole but will hang on for a few days after the first hot spell. This is going to be a bad year for the Park section of the Madison.
- Lakes in YNP: Ice-out will depend on day-to-day weather but should occur before or right around Opening Day. All should be accessible from this point onward due to limited snow on the trails. All will fish best from ice-out (or Opening Day, whichever comes second) through June, then trail off through early July.
- Creeks in YNP: Meadow-type streams will become fishable between June 10 and June 20, with those draining lakes becoming fishable towards the earlier end and those draining mountains falling into shape later. All will be best for the first month after they come in. Rough, mountain creeks will come into shape between June 20 and July 1 and be best for a month starting about a week after they fall into shape.